Rose Bowl possibilities

[Steve19]

Oregon is the only team with 1 conference loss, and Arizona, Stanford and Oregon State all have two losses. Two-way ties are broken by the head-to-head result, and 3-way ties use head-to-head if 1 team beat both of the others. The only possibility of a 4-way or more tie is if Oregon State loses at Washington State, and Oregon loses their last two games. That's unlikely enough where I won't go into those possibilities.

Here are the top 4 teams, their losses, wins against the other teams in the top-4, and remaining Pac Ten games.

Oregon - Stanford(L), plays at Ariz and hosts Oreg St
Arizona - Oregon St(W), Stanford(W), Wash(L), Cal(L), hosts Oregon, at Ariz St, and at USC
Stanford - Oreg St(L), Arizona(L), Oregon(W), hosts Cal
Oreg St - Ariz(L), Stan(W), USC(L), plays at Wash St and at Oregon

3-way tie among 2-loss teams (tie-break winner bolded)
Oregon-Ariz-Stan (based on head-to-head)
Oregon-Stan-Oreg St (based on head-to-head)
Ariz-Stan-Oreg St (based on head-to-head)

Oregon-Ariz-Oreg St is not possible since Oregon still plays both of them.

Oregon goes:
IF (they beat Arizona and Oreg St)
OR (they lose to Arizona, beat Oreg St, Cal beats Stan, WSU beats Oreg St and Ariz loses to either USC or ASU)
OR (they beat Ariz, lose to Oreg St, Cal beats Stan, and WSU beats Oreg St)

So either a Stanford win over Cal or an Oreg St win at WSU forces Oregon to win out, or they'll lose a tiebreaker.

Arizona goes:
If they win all 3 games (Oregon, at ASU, at USC).

If they lose to Oregon, they're eliminated.

If they beat Oregon and then lose a game, they need Cal over Stanford, WSU over Oreg St, and Oreg St over Oregon in order to get into the 3-loss tiebreaker.

Oregon State goes:
If (they win both their games AND Arizona loses at least 1 game)

Stanford goes:
If (they beat Cal, and all 3 of the other teams get a loss)

So, if Oregon beats Arizona and Oregon St beats WSU this week, then the Civil War between those two will have its winner go the Rose Bowl, just like the Iowa-tOSU game.

Wow. Thanks for that. It's crystal clear....

 

[BB73]

Well, Oregon and Oregon State both won today, so now it's simple.

They play on Thursday, Dec, 3rd, and the winner of that game will play tOSU in the Rose Bowl.

 

[muffler dragon]

Well, Oregon and Oregon State both won today, so now it's simple.

They play on Thursday, Dec, 3rd, and the winner of that game will play tOSU in the Rose Bowl.

Gotta admit that I'm really torn on this one. Big time.

 

[Jake]

Well, Oregon and Oregon State both won today, so now it's simple.

They play on Thursday, Dec, 3rd, and the winner of that game will play tOSU in the Rose Bowl.

Oregon State only had to win at home versus the Ducks last year to go to the Rose. They gave up 65 points, USC got the bid instead and Penn State suffered the consequences.

No doubt the Beavs remember, but can they redeem themselves? I doubt it.

 

[BuckTwenty]

Lots of fans from the rest of the conferences pick on the Big Ten & the Pac 10 for not having a conference championship game (even though its a bad idea...), but the way it worked out this year, both conferences had/will have them. Iowa vs Ohio State and Oregon vs Oregon State.

I sure hope the Ducks win. I'd love to get a piece of those guys this year.

 

[muffler dragon]

No doubt the Beavs remember, but can they redeem themselves? I doubt it.

Last year's Civil War was the first time I was ever let down in what Mike Riley put on the field. It was very disappointing. Typically, his teams don't do that. I think that Autzen will make this very difficult for the Beavers. I hope it's as good as the game last night between AZ and the Ducks.

 

[corwinator3407]

Lots of fans from the rest of the conferences pick on the Big Ten & the Pac 10 for not having a conference championship game (even though its a bad idea...), but the way it worked out this year, both conferences had/will have them. Iowa vs Ohio State and Oregon vs Oregon State.

I sure hope the Ducks win. I'd love to get a piece of those guys this year.

Really? I'm not sure what I make of an Oregon matchup, but I think I'd much rather see Oregon State.

 

[NUTS4theBUCKS28]

Really? I'm not sure what I make of an Oregon matchup, but I think I'd much rather see Oregon State.

i agree...i dont think we would be able to contain masoli if we played oregon...
for the next 2 weeks, im a beaver fan. we would stuff the quiz if we played oregon state (battle of the OSU's, but we are The Ohio State University)

 

[ORD_Buckeye]

Well, Oregon and Oregon State both won today, so now it's simple.

They play on Thursday, Dec, 3rd, and the winner of that game will play tOSU in the Rose Bowl.

Definitely want Oregon: difference between a probable top 10 matchup and playing an Oregon State team that's either unranked or just inside the top 25. Beating Oregon would go a long way--depending on the post bowl shakout--towards a shot at a top 5 finish.

 

[Woody1968]

i agree...i dont think we would be able to contain masoli if we played oregon...
for the next 2 weeks, im a beaver fan. we would stuff the quiz if we played oregon state (battle of the OSU's, but we are The Ohio State University)

Masoli makes some real pretty plays, but he also throws some stinkers. I think we can beat either of these teams & I want to play the best the Pac-10 has to offer. I have a little more confidence in our defense than you seem to.

 

[Woody1968]

Definitely want Oregon: difference between a probable top 10 matchup and playing an Oregon State team that's either unranked or just inside the top 25. Beating Oregon would go a long way--depending on the post bowl shakout--towards a shot at a top 5 finish.

Plus you don't want Cincinnati fans talking about how they beat the Pac-10 Champ, if Oregon State wins.

 

[NUTS4theBUCKS28]

Masoli makes some real pretty plays, but he also throws some stinkers. I think we can beat either of these teams & I want to play the best the Pac-10 has to offer. I have a little more confidence in our defense than you seem to.

its not that i dont have confidence in our defense, frankly i think the silver bullets are one of the best squads in the country....its just that im not confident in our offense keeping up with an "explosive" oregon offense. i think if we played oregon it would be a close game as long as masoli is kept in check and doesnt buy time in the pocket

 

[Woody1968]

its not that i dont have confidence in our defense, frankly i think the silver bullets are one of the best squads in the country....its just that im not confident in our offense keeping up with an "explosive" oregon offense. i think if we played oregon it would be a close game as long as masoli is kept in check and doesnt buy time in the pocket

In case you haven't noticed, we have rushed for over 200 yards each of the last 5 games, 2 of which were against pretty good run defenses (Iowa and Penn State). Oregon's run defense is porous at best. I don't think we will have a problem scoring.

I seem to remember playing a Kansas State team that was similar to this Oregon team a few years back. How did that end?

 

[NUTS4theBUCKS28]

In case you haven't noticed, we have rushed for over 200 yards each of the last 5 games, 2 of which were against pretty good run defenses (Iowa and Penn State). Oregon's run defense is porous at best. I don't think we will have a problem scoring.

I seem to remember playing a Kansas State team that was similar to this Oregon team a few years back. How did that end?

youre right, i shouldnt really be worried about it. although i would rather play oregon state though.

 

[3074326]

Definitely want Oregon: difference between a probable top 10 matchup and playing an Oregon State team that's either unranked or just inside the top 25. Beating Oregon would go a long way--depending on the post bowl shakout--towards a shot at a top 5 finish.

I thought Oregon State was around 15-16 now? Not that it matters, if we play and beat Oregon it'd look a lot better than beating Oregon State.

Although I don't really care who we beat, as long as we win.