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You be the expert
By Terry Bowden, Yahoo! Sports
July 29, 2005
It's almost that time of the year again – time for us expert analysts to make our predictions about who will play for the national championship. We all have our secret methods for making this prediction, but I thought I would pass mine along so you can be the expert.
There is no set formula for predicting a champion, but I do believe there are certain characteristics present in prior national champions that should give you something to go by.
When I got out of coaching seven years ago, I began to study the makeup of championship college football teams. I looked closely at the championship teams over the past dozen or so years to see if they had anything in common so that I could better predict who had what it took to win.
Each championship football team has many attributes that make it great; some teams have some, and some teams have others. However, I have come to the conclusion that there are two factors that must be present in every champion: an experienced leader at quarterback and a great defense.
A great kicking game and a balanced offense may be important factors, but you can win a national championship without them. Having the most players selected in the NFL draft is extremely beneficial, but it's not necessarily going to get you that ADT trophy. A quarterback that won't turn the ball over and a defense that keeps the other team out of the end zone are the key ingredients to success.
Take a look at the national championship picture over the last few years:
2004 USC QB Matt Leinart #3 in scoring defense (incidentally, 13-0 Auburn was #1)
2003 LSU
USC QB Matt Mauck
QB Matt Leinart #1 in scoring defense
#17 in scoring defense
2002 Ohio State QB Craig Krenzel #1 in scoring defense
2001 Miami QB Ken Dorsey #1 in scoring defense
The first thing you look at when you are making a national championship prediction is the quarterback. He is going to touch the football more than anyone else on the field – 65 to 75 snaps a game – and you must have someone who won't make mistakes.
He needs to be a solid leader who makes good decisions and doesn't turn the ball over. The value of the quarterback on a championship team is more about the mistakes he doesn't make than the big plays he does. That's why I never pick a team that is starting a first-year QB (an exception would be a backup with extensive experience). A first-year QB is going to make a crucial mistake or two in a big game.
The QB does not need to have big-time NFL talent, either. Matt Leinart will be only the second quarterback (Brian Griese in 1998) drafted on the first day by the NFL in the past 13 years (see Matt Mauck, Craig Krenzel, Ken Dorsey, Josh Heupel, Chris Weinke, Tee Martin, Scott Frost, Danny Wuerffel, Tommie Frazier, Charlie Ward and Jay Barker).
The second thing a team must have is a great defense. The one statistic that exists on almost every championship team is a top scoring defense. There is a saying that offense puts fannies in the seats but defense wins championships.
Well, it's true.
You need to look at how good a defense was last year and how many starters they have returning. Look at how many NFL-caliber athletes it has and who the defensive coordinator is. Look at every aspect of the defensive side of the ball because it will tell you whether this team will be a national-championship pretender or contender at the end of the season.
So, if you want to be an expert analyst and predict who will be this year's national champion, think quarterback and defense.
Just don't think about taking my job.
Terry Bowden is Yahoo! Sports' college football analyst. Send him a question or comment for potential use in a future column.
You be the expert
By Terry Bowden, Yahoo! Sports
July 29, 2005
It's almost that time of the year again – time for us expert analysts to make our predictions about who will play for the national championship. We all have our secret methods for making this prediction, but I thought I would pass mine along so you can be the expert.
There is no set formula for predicting a champion, but I do believe there are certain characteristics present in prior national champions that should give you something to go by.
When I got out of coaching seven years ago, I began to study the makeup of championship college football teams. I looked closely at the championship teams over the past dozen or so years to see if they had anything in common so that I could better predict who had what it took to win.
Each championship football team has many attributes that make it great; some teams have some, and some teams have others. However, I have come to the conclusion that there are two factors that must be present in every champion: an experienced leader at quarterback and a great defense.
A great kicking game and a balanced offense may be important factors, but you can win a national championship without them. Having the most players selected in the NFL draft is extremely beneficial, but it's not necessarily going to get you that ADT trophy. A quarterback that won't turn the ball over and a defense that keeps the other team out of the end zone are the key ingredients to success.
Take a look at the national championship picture over the last few years:
2004 USC QB Matt Leinart #3 in scoring defense (incidentally, 13-0 Auburn was #1)
2003 LSU
USC QB Matt Mauck
QB Matt Leinart #1 in scoring defense
#17 in scoring defense
2002 Ohio State QB Craig Krenzel #1 in scoring defense
2001 Miami QB Ken Dorsey #1 in scoring defense
The first thing you look at when you are making a national championship prediction is the quarterback. He is going to touch the football more than anyone else on the field – 65 to 75 snaps a game – and you must have someone who won't make mistakes.
He needs to be a solid leader who makes good decisions and doesn't turn the ball over. The value of the quarterback on a championship team is more about the mistakes he doesn't make than the big plays he does. That's why I never pick a team that is starting a first-year QB (an exception would be a backup with extensive experience). A first-year QB is going to make a crucial mistake or two in a big game.
The QB does not need to have big-time NFL talent, either. Matt Leinart will be only the second quarterback (Brian Griese in 1998) drafted on the first day by the NFL in the past 13 years (see Matt Mauck, Craig Krenzel, Ken Dorsey, Josh Heupel, Chris Weinke, Tee Martin, Scott Frost, Danny Wuerffel, Tommie Frazier, Charlie Ward and Jay Barker).
The second thing a team must have is a great defense. The one statistic that exists on almost every championship team is a top scoring defense. There is a saying that offense puts fannies in the seats but defense wins championships.
Well, it's true.
You need to look at how good a defense was last year and how many starters they have returning. Look at how many NFL-caliber athletes it has and who the defensive coordinator is. Look at every aspect of the defensive side of the ball because it will tell you whether this team will be a national-championship pretender or contender at the end of the season.
So, if you want to be an expert analyst and predict who will be this year's national champion, think quarterback and defense.
Just don't think about taking my job.
Terry Bowden is Yahoo! Sports' college football analyst. Send him a question or comment for potential use in a future column.
