BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

[spadukins]

Ok just because I can't help myself....

Ohio State beat Washington
Washington beat Cal
Cal beat Tennessee
Tennessee beat Georgia
Georgia beat Kentucky
Kentucky beat LSU

Therefore

Ohio State beats LSU

/SEC fan



And if anyone remembers the link to the site that maps these suckers out, please send it my way....thanks

Honestly, I don't think there is one team listed here by you that Ohio State couldn't beat. Ohio State can even beat Ohio State as shown by the Illini game!

I've seen LSU play a few times this year and all I can say is that LSU doesn't have JACK SHIT on Ohio State this year. It'd be nice to get a chance to play them. They both seem pretty even steven. It'd be a good matchup!

Go Buckeyes!!!!

 

[kn1f3party]

Whenever someone has used the word nudge it has worked out for us.

 

[Lockup]

I am not that worried about any of the teams in the current top 5. I think we culd hang with any of them. WVU probably is the worst match up for us because they play the same style ILL did.

 

[ShakerBuck]

Here is how sagarins (ELO_CHESS used in bcs formula) ranks our opponents this year

Illinois #20
WISC #27
TSUN # 29
PSU #36
MSU #54
Wash #56
Purdue #63
NW #82
YSU #98
Akron #108
KSU #129
Minnesota #133

Funny how YSU, who we got all the raised eyebrows about, is considered to be a more important victory and 3 other teams we played

ND improved to #97 after doubling their season win total last week

USC played #179 Idaho
Alabama lost to #96 louisiana monroe
AA Northern Iowa is #12

 

[cincibuck]

West Virginia and the Big East is a fucking Joke. They're going to get their ass handed to them in a Big Bowl game, just as they did when Major Somthing or other took them to #1 considerations a few years back. Why the polls don't correct for the weakness of the Big East is beyond me.

Oklahoma took itself out on Saturday and will end Dorthy's run through Oz, moving us up two more spots, but not before Dorthy and Toto prove that Mizzou isn't ready for prime time.

If the final choice ends up being between West Virgina and OSU I can't believe that logic won't kick in...

Course it might be nice to see Georgia beat LSU in 'lanta and putting us in Katrina land with the Mountaineers... perfect storm for another Shared BCs argument if OSU would win out and LSU would kick the doors off of Oklahoma/Kansas/USC whatever in the whereever bowl.

Gonna sit down and fire off an e-mail to ESPN about the final standings all being decided at sites which favor SEC and PAC 10 teams. See how far that puppy sails before the guys who pay the freight got all puffy and stop it.

 

[BB73]

FWIW

OSU's one loss was to BCS #17
OSU's best win was vs BCS #21

WVU's loss was to BCS #23
WVU's best win was vs BCS #24

If Arizona State beats USC and Arizona, I think they'll jump tOSU based on similar reasoning (win over USC, loss at Oregon). They would finish ahead of tOSU in most of the computers, since the teams are tied now and ASU would still be earning points for wins.

I still think tOSU needs 3 of these 4 things. like you posted yesterday:

1. LSU loses to either Ark or in the SEC CCG
2. Big 12 North winner (regardless of whom) loses to Big 12 South winner
3, W. Va. loses to either UConn or Pitt
4. Arizona St. loses to either USC or Arizona

 

[AKAK]

If Arizona State beats USC and Arizona, I think they'll jump tOSU based on similar reasoning (win over USC, loss at Oregon). They would finish ahead of tOSU in most of the computers, since the teams are tied now and ASU would still be earning points for wins.

I still think tOSU needs 3 of these 4 things. like you posted yesterday:

1. LSU loses to either Ark or in the SEC CCG
2. Big 12 North winner (regardless of whom) loses to Big 12 South winner
3, W. Va. loses to either UConn or Pitt
4. Arizona St. loses to either USC or Arizona

Luckily... that's really 3 of 7 things... they just have to be the right 3 of the 7.

 

[Jaxbuck]

Luckily... that's really 3 of 7 things... they just have to be the right 3 of the 7.

#2 being the lynchpin. If that one doesn't go we're likely done.

I also still think we would survive an ASU win out. They have a pretty big gap to make up but who knows.

 

[tundra1]

If Arizona State beats USC and Arizona, I think they'll jump tOSU based on similar reasoning (win over USC, loss at Oregon). They would finish ahead of tOSU in most of the computers, since the teams are tied now and ASU would still be earning points for wins.

I still think tOSU needs 3 of these 4 things. like you posted yesterday:

1. LSU loses to either Ark or in the SEC CCG
2. Big 12 North winner (regardless of whom) loses to Big 12 South winner
3, W. Va. loses to either UConn or Pitt
4. Arizona St. loses to either USC or Arizona

Putting some hypothetical probabilities on these events (and assuming that they are independent), let's just say that the following odds hold:

20% chance that LSU loses to Arkansas
30% chance that LSU loses the SEC championship game
30% chance that the B12N winner loses to the B12S winner
30% chance that WVU loses to UConn
10% chance that WVU loses to Pitt
30% chance that ASU loses to USC
20% chance that ASU loses to Arizona

I just made up these percentages--I'm sure that everyone has their own, and I don't want to get into a debate about these percentages...I'm just trying to illustrate a point.

Under that scenario...Ohio State has a 16.3% chance (about 1 in 6) of making the BCS national title game. All considering, not *that* long of a shot.

If you believe that ASU can't pass Ohio State, then OSU's chances rise to 30.8%--almost one in 3.

 

[Jaxbuck]

I think the city of New Orleans is going to play a part here. They already suffered through Katrina, they are not going to want a week of WVU and LSU fans running amok in their city.

 

[Big Papa]

Putting some hypothetical probabilities on these events (and assuming that they are independent), let's just say that the following odds hold:

20% chance that LSU loses to Arkansas
30% chance that LSU loses the SEC championship game
30% chance that the B12N winner loses to the B12S winner
30% chance that WVU loses to UConn
10% chance that WVU loses to Pitt
30% chance that ASU loses to USC
20% chance that ASU loses to Arizona

I just made up these percentages--I'm sure that everyone has their own, and I don't want to get into a debate about these percentages...I'm just trying to illustrate a point.

Under that scenario...Ohio State has a 16.3% chance (about 1 in 6) of making the BCS national title game. All considering, not *that* long of a shot.

If you believe that ASU can't pass Ohio State, then OSU's chances rise to 30.8%--almost one in 3.

Those percentages are ridiculous. I hope you don't actually gamble or you are going to go broke.

 

[Big Papa]

If Arizona State beats USC and Arizona, I think they'll jump tOSU based on similar reasoning (win over USC, loss at Oregon). They would finish ahead of tOSU in most of the computers, since the teams are tied now and ASU would still be earning points for wins.

I still think tOSU needs 3 of these 4 things. like you posted yesterday:

1. LSU loses to either Ark or in the SEC CCG
2. Big 12 North winner (regardless of whom) loses to Big 12 South winner
3, W. Va. loses to either UConn or Pitt
4. Arizona St. loses to either USC or Arizona

I can really see 1,2 & 4 being real good possibilities. I just am not confident that WV will lose to either Uconn or Pitt. I would hate to see WVU in the BCS Champ game, they are not of that caliber in my opinion.

 

[Nordberg]

Honestly, I don't think there is one team listed here by you that Ohio State couldn't beat. Ohio State can even beat Ohio State as shown by the Illini game!

I've seen LSU play a few times this year and all I can say is that LSU doesn't have JACK SHIT on Ohio State this year. It'd be nice to get a chance to play them. They both seem pretty even steven. It'd be a good matchup!

Go Buckeyes!!!!

I totally agree. Every time I have watched LSU, their defense gave up a bunch of yards and points. Their Offense was marginal at best. Both of these are a combination for disaster.

 

[Cicero]

Seems like those SEC defenses have given up a lot of points all year. Of course when you face NFL offenses week in week out it stands to reaon. :)

 

[Nordberg]

I can really see 1,2 & 4 being real good possibilities. I just am not confident that WV will lose to either Uconn or Pitt. I would hate to see WVU in the BCS Champ game, they are not of that caliber in my opinion.

I see this being the best posibility. I would like to see us play WVU. I saw them play Cinci, and WVU ran the same play. Hand off stretch play to Slaton to get to the corner. Like the Illinois game, I don't think White can throw. I think our defense learned a BUNCH with the Illinois game. We would be ready for WVU.