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BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

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Nordberg;1000308; said:
I totally agree. Every time I have watched LSU, their defense gave up a bunch of yards and points. Their Offense was marginal at best. Both of these are a combination for disaster.
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You forget, though, that their offense was asked to move the ball against mighty SEC defenses, and their defense was asked to stop mighty SEC offenses. Just the fact that they won some of those games means that they should be world champions in football, badmitton, and maybe bungee jumping.
 
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Zurp;1000340; said:
You forget, though, that their offense was asked to move the ball against mighty SEC defenses, and their defense was asked to stop mighty SEC offenses. Just the fact that they won some of those games means that they should be world champions in football, badmitton, and maybe bungee jumping.
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Beer Pong?
 
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Number 1?

I think that there is a better chance of Ohio State finishing number 1 in the BCS Standings than we realize. Yes, that sounds crazy but here is my thinking:

LSU: They have two very difficult games left and have needed a lot of luck to get to this point. Their highly touted defense has been giving up 30 plus a game lately and have proven to be undisciplined at times on both sides of the ball with penalties, etc. Les Miles is a great recruiter but in my opinion isn't the greatest in game coach.

Kansas/ Missouri: I think the Big 12 could and will play themselves out of this one if a healthy Oklahoma gets past Okie State.

West Virginia: Dennis Dixon Syndrome. I think he is more important to WV than Tebow is to Florida. That being said I think they get it done if he stays healthy but crazier things have happened.

Arizona State: Who knows what the computers will say if the win out?

My pick...OSU vs. West Virginia for the national title.
Les Miles is the new man at Michigan.
Charlie Weis gains 20 pounds
and Chicks Dig Sweatervests
 
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GoBuckeyes27;1000423; said:
I think that there is a better chance of Ohio State finishing number 1 in the BCS Standings than we realize. Yes, that sounds crazy but here is my thinking:

LSU: They have two very difficult games left and have needed a lot of luck to get to this point. Their highly touted defense has been giving up 30 plus a game lately and have proven to be undisciplined at times on both sides of the ball with penalties, etc. Les Miles is a great recruiter but in my opinion isn't the greatest in game coach.

Kansas/ Missouri: I think the Big 12 could and will play themselves out of this one if a healthy Oklahoma gets past Okie State.

West Virginia: Dennis Dixon Syndrome. I think he is more important to WV than Tebow is to Florida. That being said I think they get it done if he stays healthy but crazier things have happened.

Arizona State: Who knows what the computers will say if the win out?

My pick...OSU vs. West Virginia for the national title.
Les Miles is the new man at Michigan.
Charlie Weis gains 20 pounds
and Chicks Dig Sweatervests
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I agree with everything you said accept West Virginia loses even with a healthy Pat White. They do it every year, it doesn't matter who is on the team. Also, I'm willing to wager the farm on a minimum of 30 pounds to Weis. My National Championship picture looks like this: Ohio State v. Notre Dame--for the ratings, lord knows the game won't solidify a National Champion in the media's eyes.
 
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Zem;1000424; said:
ASU will not beat USC, whom has key players like Clay Matthews returning. Fred Davis will have a big day on that soft pass defense and Chauncey Washington and Stefan Johnson will run like wind.
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I don't think you can actually count on USC to beat anyone. I mean anyone. Last season they escaped numerous horrible teams with last minute drives. We know what has happened this year. They just have poor character and it can show up at any time.

I agree that we have a very decent shot at making the NC game. LSU should lose to either Arkansas or in the SEC champ game. If they don't luck was simply on their side because that is the only reason that they only have 1 loss. Oklahoma will beat the North Champ. They are inconsistent in small games but they come to play when they are facing a good opponent. WV will probably beat Connecticut. I would say 30% chance that they beat themselves. Hopefully the universe will step in on this one too, I just don't like the idea of WV in.

So all things considered 1 or 2 is within sight but I am content with the Rose Bowl to be honest. It is our fault anyway that we are in this posistion. So I don't feel any pressure, but this has certainly made for a few relevant and entertaining Saturday's. I think we are the best team and if that is true hopefully Karma will carry us to where we deserve to be.
 
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Victories over teams with 6 or more wins (from a BCS conference) this season:

LSU - Miss St., Auburn, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina (Arkansas pending, SEC Championship pending)
Kansas - Texas A&M, Oklahoma State (Missouri pending)
Missouri - Illinois, Texas Tech, Texas A&M (Kansas pending)
West Virginia - Miss St., Rutgers, Cincinnati (UCONN, Pitt pending)
Ohio State - Northwestern, Purdue, Michigan St., Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan

Each teams losses:

LSU - @Kentucky (7-4) 43-37 3 OT
Kansas - no losses
Missouri - @Oklahoma (9-2) 41-31
West Virginia - @South Florida (8-3) 21-13
Ohio State - Illinois (9-3) 28-21

To think, at one point, it was popular to trash Ohio State because of their schedule is now very funny.
 
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tundra1;1000205; said:
Putting some hypothetical probabilities on these events (and assuming that they are independent), let's just say that the following odds hold: Steve 19 added Greenfield estimates in bold

20% chance that LSU loses to Arkansas 21%
30% chance that LSU loses the SEC championship game not given but certainly over 35% given power ratings
30% chance that the B12N winner loses to the B12S winner
Kansas has a 43% chance of losing to Missouri
30% chance that WVU loses to UConn 21%
10% chance that WVU loses to Pitt 7%
30% chance that ASU loses to USC 39%
20% chance that ASU loses to Arizona 22%

I just made up these percentages--I'm sure that everyone has their own, and I don't want to get into a debate about these percentages...I'm just trying to illustrate a point.

Under that scenario...Ohio State has a 16.3% chance (about 1 in 6) of making the BCS national title game. All considering, not *that* long of a shot.

If you believe that ASU can't pass Ohio State, then OSU's chances rise to 30.8%--almost one in 3.
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Actually, these estimates aren't really all that bad, if Mike Greenfield's model estimates are compared to them.
 
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Tlangs;1000439; said:
you know way too many USC players names.
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I just looked at a pseudo injury summary on cbssportsline's website, and a summary of their game against Cal. Plus, living in Cali, I've seen some of their games.

Most of the upsets have happened as a result of injuries to key players on the highly ranked team. So I'm following the injury lists, as well as skimming over team stats. It will be interesting to see how reliable they are for predicting how these games turn out. Buckeyes aren't playing, so maybe this will make the football aspect of the weekend more interesting.

I know some LSU players' names, as well. Holliday, WR Terrance Toliver, and their starting free safety have ankle issues that will likely keep them out of the game against AR. Dorsey not only has the knee, but now has a back problem, as someone else mentioned. Hester has the rib injury. Plus that quick turnaround--that's going to be a tough game for LSU.

After seeing parts of the Cinci-UConn game, I can't see UConn staying on the field with WV if Pat White is okay.
 
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beating020605.jpg


The millers recognize this nudging. Now that we nudged TSUN, lets nudge the BCS a little.
 
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