BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

[ScarletBlood31]

Even though they're disapointed over being upset out of the National Championship game, the Sooners still have a lot to play for. Oklahoma has the Big 12 Championship, and a BCS bowl game berth on the line so they will be coming out fired up and putting it all out there.

On the other hand, Missouri has everything in the world to play for.

I just want Oklahoma to win so bad.

 

[BengalsAndBucks]

So here is my huge bone to pick with the BCS, and more particularly, the voters (it doesn't involve tOSU, but it shows just how fucked up the system really is):

This didn't actually happen because Tennessee beat Kentucky, but here was a very probable scenario if the SEC title game was Georgia/LSU. LSU will be #5/6, Georgia will be #4. If they were to play in the SEC title game, the loser would probably drop to 10/11, and would drop behind Florida. Both teams beat Florida head to head and each would have won a share of their division. Also, the loser would have finished with a 10-3 record, better than Florida's 9-3 record, and have played one more incredibly tough game. So had the SEC Championship been UGA/LSU, Florida could sneak into a BCS game instead of the loser because they DIDN'T win their division and didn't have to play in the championship game? Again, I realize this didn't happen, but how fucked up is it that this would have happened if Kentucky could kick a field goal?

The same situation is there for Missouri. They just beat Kansas head-to-head to earn a bid to the Big 12 title game, where they face BCS #8/9 Oklahoma. Kansas will probably fall to 9/10, right behind OU. If Missouri were to lose in the Big 12 title game, they could very well lose out on a BCS bid in favor of Kansas, despite the fact that they beat Kansas head-to-head. Now I realize that at this point the teams are at-larges and one could be picked over the other, but it just goes to show what is wrong with the system- that voters would punish teams for playing an extra game against the best opponent possible.

 

[IronBuckI]

I'm hoping for a Oklahoma win because frankly I don't want to play USC. I would much rather face WVU because their defense (3-3-5) is not geared to stop a 240 pound running back. USC's defensive front 7 is nasty and I think we would struggle with them. Either way I'm happy we're BCS bound but I want that NC, and I want to shut the media up.


GO BUCKS! (go sooners!!!)

Whether we play USC or WVU we have some serious match-up issues to work on for the next few weeks. WVU runs the offense that we haven't been able to stop, and runs the same D that Akron gave us trouble with. USC is just good across the board, but I think that we actually match-up with them better than we do WVU.

 

[buckeye247]

Never thought i would say these words. GO SOONERS

 

[billmac91]

the computers will give a bigger lead to WVU this week compared to last weeks poll. We really couldn't have had much worse of a day, as Akron, Kent St, and Washington all lost hurting our strength of schedule.

Maryland, Western Michigan, Marshall, and East Carolina all won which were all WVU opponents. Also South Florida won which lessens the blow of WVU's loss, and Cincy won so they will go up a few spots in the top 25. Thats as bad a day as we could have against WVU.

Obviously, we're in much better shape than last week, as all we need is an Oklahoma win or Pitt win, but I just don't see us overtaking WVU in the BCS standings. Before this weekend it was entirely possible in my estimation, but it was dependent on how previous opponents finished out the season and in our case they aren't finishing well at all.

We couldn't of asked for anything more though. I know I kept hope after the Illi loss, but this is almost too good to be true.

GO SOONERS!!

 

[billmac91]

Call me crazy but I think Pitt has a reasonable shot at the upset next week. Wandstedt likes to pound LeSean Mccoy and against that 3-3-5 defense he'll get his yards. Mccoy is definately a top-notch RB.

I have no friggin clue why UCONN was so committed to throwing the ball today, as WVU could not stop the run. Brown of UCONN had 108 yards on 12 carries in the first half. And they refused to run on 3rd and short all game. Why?

Trust me, Mccoy will prob get 30 carries and his back-up is fairly decent as well. I'd be surprised if its a blowout, and would not be shocked to see a very close game. When Edsil (sp?) watches the game-tape of today I think he's going to realize he out-coached himself.

 

[BengalsAndBucks]

the computers will give a bigger lead to WVU this week compared to last weeks poll. We really couldn't have had much worse of a day, as Akron, Kent St, and Washington all lost hurting our strength of schedule.

Maryland, Western Michigan, Marshall, and East Carolina all won which were all WVU opponents. Also South Florida won which lessens the blow of WVU's loss, and Cincy won so they will go up a few spots in the top 25. Thats as bad a day as we could have against WVU.

Obviously, we're in much better shape than last week, as all we need is an Oklahoma win or Pitt win, but I just don't see us overtaking WVU in the BCS standings. Before this weekend it was entirely possible in my estimation, but it was dependent on how previous opponents finished out the season and in our case they aren't finishing well at all.

We couldn't of asked for anything more though. I know I kept hope after the Illi loss, but this is almost too good to be true.

GO SOONERS!!

To be fair we were going to drop in the computers anyways. We were tied with WVU despite having 2 more wins than them. The simple fact that they would got a win against a 9-2 opponent meant that we would lose computer points and thus break our tie with them. The good news hear is that the 2 teams ahead of us and the team tied with us in the computer rankings all lost. I could honestly see the computer rankings going WVU 1, OSU 2, Mizzou 3, and I think it will be relatively close.



But, realistically, all that matters now is that OU beats Mizzou.

 

[methomps]

Adding these games to Colley's Matrix:

Arkansas over LSU
Missouri over Kansas
West Virginia over UConn
USC over Arizona State
Georgia over Georgia Tech

produces these results:

1. West Virginia .88432 (previously 4th)
2. Missouri .87906 (previously 6th)
3. Ohio State .86469 (previously 2nd)
4. Georgia .86317 (previously 7th)
5. LSU .85756 (previously 1st)

Now, a potential problem for Ohio State. If you add LSU over Tennesee, then LSU jumps OSU.

 

[WaitingforKickoff]

Adding these games to Colley's Matrix:

Arkansas over LSU
Missouri over Kansas
West Virginia over UConn
USC over Arizona State
Georgia over Georgia Tech

produces these results:

1. West Virginia .88432 (previously 4th)
2. Missouri .87906 (previously 6th)
3. Ohio State .86469 (previously 2nd)
4. Georgia .86317 (previously 7th)
5. LSU .85756 (previously 1st)

Now, a potential problem for Ohio State. If you add LSU over Tennesee, then LSU jumps OSU.

That's one computer poll out of six. The highest and lowest computer ranking gets dropped. If we assume that either Mizzo/WVU loses, which is what really makes this discussion relevant in the first place, LSU surpassing Ohio State in this particular computer poll would mean that LSU is ranked #1 or #2 in the poll, which almost guarantees it getting tosses out when. Likewise, if a computer poll has Ohio State ranked #3, it's probably as low as it's going to get for OSU, which means that it is also going to get thrown out. Regardless of what happens with the computer polls, a fresh home loss to Arkansas really guarantees that LSU will be too far behind in the human polls for any of the computers to make any difference.

 

[methomps]

That's one computer poll out of six. The highest and lowest computer ranking gets dropped. If we assume that either Mizzo/WVU loses, which is what really makes this discussion relevant in the first place, LSU surpassing Ohio State in this particular computer poll would mean that LSU is ranked #1 or #2 in the poll, which almost guarantees it getting tosses out when. Likewise, if a computer poll has Ohio State ranked #3, it's probably as low as it's going to get for OSU, which means that it is also going to get thrown out. Regardless of what happens with the computer polls, a fresh home loss to Arkansas really guarantees that LSU will be too far behind in the human polls for any of the computers to make any difference.

Depends. The computers are the most dangerous component and can overrule humans. The SEC effect and the layoff effect should never be discounted. However, I would also note that Ohio State caught a huge break when Tennessee won today. LSU beating Georgia could've been enough to rejump Ohio State.

 

[ChrisStassen]

Obviously, we're in much better shape than last week, as all we need is an Oklahoma win or Pitt win, but I just don't see us overtaking WVU in the BCS standings.

I agree, overtaking West Virginia assuming they beat Pitt is incredibly unlikely. They ran up an impressive number on UConn, which will if anything sway poll voters to them, as well.

I redid my calculation with the latest Sagarin ratings (which are only on Sagarin's personal web site as of this moment, not yet up on the USA Today site).

Surprisingly (to me), the odds of OSU getting to New Orleans went up from my post-LSU calculation. West Virginia won a game that they were pretty heavily favored to win, it was their only realistic upset chance left... but that was more than balanced by the Missouri win over Kansas.

The reason is that Missouri is still a decided underdog to Oklahoma, while Kansas would have had a better shot at beating Oklahoma, according to Sagarin. I'm not sure I agree with Sagarin on that point, but the numbers are what they are, and I committed before the games were played to using those particular numbers, no matter how convenient or inconvenient they might be to Ohio State's hopes.

The full details are linked at the bottom of this post, but the "payoff" is:

Probabilities for each possible matchup:
66% Ohio State vs West Virginia
29% West Virginia vs Missouri
3% Ohio State vs someone else (Georgia, LSU, etc.)
2% Ohio State vs Missouri

Each individual team's chance to make the game(*):
West Virginia - 95%
Ohio State - 71%
Missouri - 31%
Someone else (both West Virginia and Missouri lose) - 3%

(*) The sum of all percentages is 200% because there are two teams in the game.

OSU odds to BCS title game: 71%

 

[Taosman]

The fact that the Big Ten is not playing probably HELPS in a season like this. It's like we keep winning! (that is a positive view, I know) :tongue2:

 

[krazeyk]

WHEN oklahoma wins be prepared for a huge amount of critisim from all the media folks thats for sure. I'm going to be irritated, I'm goin to want to yell out, but I hope they do a number on us I REALLY hope they lay into our bucks and tell us how our defense won't catch WVU, and how our 50 day lay off will hurt our offense. Because give this team one more reason to stick it to WVU and we could make a statement on Jan. 8th.
I think Tressel and the coaches will have learned from last years layoff, and I know the players will have learned from how to conduct themselves so I have no doubt we will come ready to play. BOOMER SOONER!

I'm hoping for a Oklahoma win because frankly I don't want to play USC. I would much rather face WVU because their defense (3-3-5) is not geared to stop a 240 pound running back. USC's defensive front 7 is nasty and I think we would struggle with them. Either way I'm happy we're BCS bound but I want that NC, and I want to shut the media up.


GO BUCKS! (go sooners!!!)

We will never shut them up. If we blowout WVU in the BCSCG then they'll say WVU shouldn't have been there and USC,OU,LSU, and maybe even Mizzou would have beaten have they played us. Only thing that will change in the medias eyes is that the Big East is Horrible.

 

[t_BuckeyeScott]

Jeff Sagarin's Elo_Chess is not helping us at all. (ELO_CHESS is the one turned into the BCS).
1. Missouri
2. West Virginia
3. Kansas
4. Virginia Tech
5. Ohio State

 

[Deezeldogg]

Just remindining everyone of my post earlier in this thread (#373) on Nov. 18th.....getting close to reality now :)

My predictions:

1. Kansas defeats Missouri--or vice-versa.

2. Winner of Kansas-Missouri loses to Oklahoma in Big 12 Championship.

3. LSU loses to Georgia in SEC Championship game. Or maybe even Arkansas.

4. West Virginia wins out.

5. OSU and WVU will be matched up in BCS title game.

6. Holy hell will break out on both sides of the river here in southeast Ohio.

7. OSU will be crowned National Champions for the 2007-08 year.

8. OSU will be preseason #1 next year.

9. OSU will succumb to the pressure and finish 11-2, losing to USC and Michigan.

MARK IT DOWN!!!!