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Best Year in Baseball History?

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AKAK: "Speaking of Sabermetrics, I noticed that Joe Jackson is 7th all time in adjusted OPS.... predictably, he is the only player not in the top ten not in the hall of fame (or soon to be, Bonds #3, McGwire t-10th)."

Yeah, Jackson isn't techincally a HOF'er, but he should be and would be if not for his suspension. .356 lifetime AVG, four seasons with 200+ hits, hit .408 in 1911, .395 in 1912, and .382 in 1920. Ruth called him the greatest hitter he ever saw.

"So... How about Rickey... 5 tools?"

No way. Rickey had a poor arm and was awful in the field (mostly because he never hustled). He could make the spectacular play with the best of 'em, but butchered the routine ones. He just never cared about his D: surprisingly, he did win a Gold Glove in 1981, tho'. At the plate, however, its another story:

IMO, the two best offensive players I ever saw are Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson. Stick Michael (the Yankees Super Scout, and the GM who built the Dynasty) said the 2 best he ever saw were Willie Mays and Henderson.

Henderson and Bonds are the only two guys who could singlehandedly carry an offense to prominence. They disrupted and caused so much distress and havoc for the opposing teams that their mere presence rattled them. If you look at Henderson's prime, his best years (besides the '90 MVP season) were spent with the Yankees. I watched every game in those days and Rickey was good for at least 1 1st Inning run per game. He was absoutely devastating.

Look at what he did against the Blue Jays in the '89 ALCS (I don't know if you remember that Series, he was the MVP. He killed them.). Henderson (in 5 games) scored 8 runs, 6 hits, 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, 7 BBs, .400 AVG, .609 OBP, 1.000 SLG, and threw in 8 stolen bases to boot. Maybe the best single series playoff performance in baseball history.
 
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Yeah...Okay...no arm... but what an offensive weapon... and I sure remember him robbing some people with the leather.... But when you're that fast, that's gonna happen.

Too bad Rickey knew (Knows) how good he was....

The great thing about Rickey was that he walked... well quite a number of times.. and they might as well have done the co-ed softball rule and just let him go to second... 4-balls+ 2 bases.

Total freak.

Anyway-

What about these Guys:

HOF or Not

Grace
Griffey (if he never played again)
Edgar Martinez
Frank Thomas Today
John Smoltz Today.
 
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AKAK: "and I sure remember him robbing some people with the leather.... But when you're that fast, that's gonna happen."

Oh yeah. If Rickey wanted to, he could've been a 10+ time Gold Glover. To this day, he made the single best play I've ever seen a outfielder make in an '88 game against Ellis Burks and the Red Sox. The problem is, he just never cared enough.

As for the rest (* - note: the numbers I'm referencing are coming into, and not including this year):

Grace: No way. Not even close. Good player, great clutch player (his lead off single in the 9th Inning of Game 7 of Yanks-D-Backs was huge), but won't even get a sniff for the HOF. He's a poor man's Keith Hernandez.

Griffey (if he never played again): I think Junior's a shoe-in. 500+ Home Runs, 1997 MVP, 8 seasons 100+ RBI, six seasons w/ 100+ runs, and 10 Gold Gloves. To me, however, his career has been a waste. He's the best talent I've ever seen on the diamond: hit, hit for power, run, field, and an absolute CANNON for an arm. But, he spent his whole career pulling the ball for gawdy Home Run Totals and never achieved his potential. He's only a .294 lifetime hitter, and his career high is .308. He should be much better than that. He never stole enough for my tastes: there should be a couple of 30/30 years in there, and there aren't. His OBP isn't good at all: .379 lifetime.

Maybe I'm being too critical of the kid, but the first time I ever saw him play (a May 1990 game at Yankee Stadium), I thought I was looking at the next Willie Mays, and he never got to that. I thought he's had maturity problems his whole career, and lacked the psycho edge of a great hitter (a la Ty Cobb, Ted Williams, etc.).

The only time I thought he reached his full potential was the 1995 ALDS vs. the Yankees: 5 G, 9 R, 9 H, 5 HR, 7 RBI, .391 AVG, .444 OBP, & 1.043 SLG. He had a grudge against the Yankees organization because Billy Martin threw him out of the dugout as a child when KG Sr. played for us. Its a stupid thing, but he never played with that same grudge against anyone else. That tells me a little about what Griff is all about.

Edgar Martinez: The best righthanded hitter I ever saw, but not a HOF'er. He is the greatest DH of all time (outside Paul Molitor), but the numbers just don't stack up: 2,119 hits, 491 2B, 297 HR, 1,198 RBI, .315 lifetime, .423 OBP, and .525 SLG. If knee injuries hadn't slowed his progress and (eventually) make him a full time DH, I think Martinez would be considered with the greatest 3B to ever play the game. But, they did, and his numbers just haven't stacked up.

He did win 2 batting titles (posting a .356 AVG in 1995, the highest total for a righthanded hitter since DiMaggio). And his numbers in the aforementioned ALDS? Check this out: 5 G, 6 R, 12 H, 3 2B, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 6 BB, .571 AVG, .667 OBP, and 1.00 SLG. The greatest Yankee-killer of all time, or at least that I ever saw.

Frank Thomas Today: Looking purely at the numbers, I think the Big Hurt will get in: 2 MVPs, a batting Title, 9 seasons w/ 100+ runs, 5 seasons w/ 40+ HRs and 8 w/ 30+, 10 seasons w/ 100+ RBI, 10 seasons w/ 100+ BB, .310 lifetime, .428 OBP, & .568 SLG. Pretty impressive numbers, although Thomas isn't anywhere near the feared hitter he was earlier in his career. His totals aren't gawdy: 2,048 Hits and 418 HR, and he has no signature post-season moment, but I think he gets in anyway. His average has tailed off since the begining of his career, but the power and run production have stayed to the point where he should get in.

John Smoltz Today: Smoltz is going to need 3 to 4 more years of dominant relief pitching to get in the HOF (a la Dennis Eckersley). He has a Cy Young, a NLCS MVP, a Rolaids Relief Man of the Year, 2 Strikeout Titles, but no ERA Titles, only one 20 win season, and his lifetime ERA isn't great (3.29). Also, his win Total is subpar for a great pitcher who's been on a team that won 13 straight Division Titles (163), and an average lifetime win pct (.576) and that will hurt him.

Smoltzy is one of the best big game pitchers I ever saw. He was overpowering, and I'd take him over any of the two HOF pitchers (Maddux & Glavine) on the Braves in a playoff spot. However, his numbers (right now) are too light for the HOF if he retired today. He might get in, but I think it'll take more dominant relief years.
 
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Okay-

I tend to agree with all that... especially with Grace...

Griffey- Yeah, You're being hard on the kid... but you're right... Almost all HR's. There aren't too many years that he was good where there wasn't an obviously better offensice threat from top to bottom than him... it jsut wasn't the same guy every year... but I'll tell you that I'd rather, for one season, have Juan Gonzlez, Manny Ramirez, or Albert Belle at the top of their game than Griffey... and those are just AL guys I can think of that are more or less contemporaries. Having said that, he's a first ballot inductee just based on those 10 great years he had.

Egar-- Not close... and Manny Ramirez is better RH hitter than him anyway...IMO to name one. I think that Frank Thomas is probably more like the best DH of all time... Even when he did play first, its not worth mentioning.

The Big Hurt and John Smoltz- See these are sort of Wildcards... I think when you consider the era... Thomas probably will get in but doesn't deserve to, and Smoltz the other way. Thomas's numbers are underwhelming to me in that "Poor Man's Dave Winfield" kind of way...

Smoltz's numbers are going to be 'confused' to say the least, he'll probably finish with about 170ish wins and I'm guessing about 200 saves.... to me... if he had remained a starter, I think you could assume that he's have 200 wins... and anymore, with the rest of his resume, in the time span he played... he's got to be considered at least a borderline candidate... but won't be... Once Clemens, Glavine, Johnson, and Maddux are elected... you're going to be left with guys like Schilling, Smoltz, Pedro (who I tend to think is ending the road of his effectiveness, of course Pedro's overwhelming Talent will make him maybe an easier pick) on that "hanging out list... along with K. Brown and Mussina... who maybe will have an edge in totals... After that... some of these younger guys are going to have to step up or there won't be many pitchers elected for a while.

I think Thomas has a big problem, if 'people' are viewing Raphael Palmiero a borderline guy. Though I tend to think those 'people' are on acid.
 
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AKAK: Great post. I really like all your points.

"Griffey- Yeah, You're being hard on the kid... but you're right... Almost all HR's."

Here's the thing: Griffey played in one of the best hitter's parks of all time in the Kingdome. He always had good to great protection in the line-up in Martinez, Buhner, A-Rod, etc. But for all his talents, he never put up a career year with a .320+, 120+ Runs, 200+ Hits, 40+ Dongs, etc. Watching him play, it always seemed like he pulled the ball without any thought of the game situation. And that's a big knock for me. He never seemed like a guy who loved the game or wanted to win more than anything, but rather a kid who was blessed with incredible talents & was spolied because of it.

If you pick apart his stats, he really has deficiencies in a lot of categories, but overall, his HR totals will get him in the HOF. And, I think if he had 400 HRs instead of 500, I think he'd get shut out of Cooperstown completely.

"I'd rather, for one season, have Juan Gonzlez, Manny Ramirez, or Albert Belle at the top of their game than Griffey... and those are just AL guys I can think of that are more or less contemporaries"

Agreed. All of those players' career seasons are better than Griffey's best (much better, IMO). You can even argue many more: Bagwell, A-Rod, Sheffield, Palmiero, Carlos Delgado, Sosa, McGwire, etc. I can probably put up a lot more than that to go against the Kid.

"Manny Ramirez is better RH hitter than him anyway"

Its close. Man-Ram is a great hitter, and that's a great argument. Ramirez' stats are way better than Edgar, but I thought EM was better (but that's just IMO).

"Thomas probably will get in but doesn't deserve to, and Smoltz the other way. Thomas's numbers are underwhelming to me in that "Poor Man's Dave Winfield" kind of way..."

Well, the thing that disappoints me about Thomas is that he came out of the box with monster numbers (his lifetime AVG was .330 after his 1st seven full seasons and has now dipped to .310) and has been declining since age 30. A HOF'er (in my eyes) shouldn't be on the decline at that age, he should be putting up career numbers at that age. I can't agree with you that Thomas' numbers are underwhelming, they are actually HUGE numbers: look up those 1st seven seasons, stats don't get much better than that. His per season averages through '97 (seven seasons) were 107 Runs, 171 Hits, 34 2B, 36 HR, 118 RBI, 119 BB, and the aforementioned .330 AVG. That's not underwhelming by any stretch of the imagination. His average since then has been .282. His numbers warrant it, but I hate to see a player back his way into the HOF.

"Pedro (who I tend to think is ending the road of his effectiveness, of course Pedro's overwhelming Talent will make him maybe an easier pick)"

I think Martinez will make it on the first ballot, no matter how underwhelming his totals are. He was Koufax-like dominant for about five seasons.

"along with K. Brown and Mussina"

If either of these guys want to go to Cooperstown, they had better buy a ticket. Both fall reasonably short of the Hall in my eyes. There's no Cy Youngs between both pitchers.

"I think Thomas has a big problem, if 'people' are viewing Raphael Palmiero a borderline guy. Though I tend to think those 'people' are on acid."

I agree. Palmeiro is a shoe-in, no doubter in my eyes. If you compare RP's lifetime stats with the aforementioned Griffey, its not even close. He blows him right out of the water in every category, both lifetime and seasonal. And not by a little bit either.
 
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His per season averages through '97 (seven seasons) were 107 Runs, 171 Hits, 34 2B, 36 HR, 118 RBI, 119 BB, and the aforementioned .330 AVG. That's not underwhelming by any stretch of the imagination. His average since then has been .282. His numbers warrant it, but I hate to see a player back his way into the HOF.
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Well.. My point is that in what should be his prime... in one of the great era's of Offense the guy has only been above average.... and can't even get another team to take him for chump change.

"along with K. Brown and Mussina"

If either of these guys want to go to Cooperstown, they had better buy a ticket. Both fall reasonably short of the Hall in my eyes. There's no Cy Youngs between both pitchers.
Click to expand...

Well.. exactly... I don't think either are 'great pitchers' though I have trmendous respect (KB's little antics aside) for both, at least at one point or another in their carrers.... but they might as well leave starting pitchers off the ballot for 5 years in that case... maybe more. The point being that the standard for starters is going to have to go down.... Tell me who is pitching now that is going to have resume like Clemens or MAddux... (I hear the crickets chirping)

I think Martinez will make it on the first ballot, no matter how underwhelming his totals are. He was Koufax-like dominant for about five seasons
Click to expand...

Either that or Koufax was Martinez-like dominant.
 
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AKAK: "Well.. My point is that in what should be his prime... in one of the great era's of Offense the guy has only been above average.... and can't even get another team to take him for chump change."

No question about it. I equate Thomas' HOF candidacy to that of Eric Dickerson in football. Both guys came out of the box with unbelievable numbers, and both tailed off too quickly. However, those first years are good enough to buoy the guy in the HOF vote. Thomas is keeping the twilight of his career afloat with good power numbers the last few years: he had 42 dongs with 102 RBI last year.

"but they might as well leave starting pitchers off the ballot for 5 years in that case... maybe more"

You're probably right. I can't think of anybody off the top of my head. I do think, however, that's there's a ton of great young pitching in baseball right now: Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Prior, Wood, Santana, Sheets, etc.

The Great Mariano, aka "The Sandman" will make it on the 1st ballot during the period you mentioned, but he's a Relief Pitcher.
 
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You're probably right. I can't think of anybody off the top of my head. I do think, however, that's there's a ton of great young pitching in baseball right now: Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Prior, Wood, Santana, Sheets, etc.
Click to expand...

Yeah- Take all those guys, and none of them are on near 300 win pace... Hudson has 91, he'll be 30 next year. Mulder's doin a little better w/ 81 at 27, Zito... Maybe a little better with 71 at 26... Wood is behind them, Prior doesn't even have 30 wins yet at 24, Santana doesn't have 40.. and Sheets has 43, and is only a month younger than Zito. Sabathia is ahead of by Wins per age, he has 54 wins and just turned 24... and his ERA ain't all that pretty at 4.09... so that's the state of that... but I guess we're going to have to start looking at guys who won 150 in 10 years and just can the rest of their careers.

Rivera ought to go on the first ballot... but... exactly... he's a closer....

Poor Eric Dickerson... He was his own worst enemy.... ("I want a trade"... have fun in Indy buddy... )
 
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Who are the most-likely HOF'ers in baseball right now? These are the guys I see making it, and some are already locks. I didn't include young guys like Mark Prior or Josh Beckett, because there's just not enough of a body of work. I have fifteen right now:

1. Randy Johnson
2. Rafael Palmeiro
3. Pedro Martinez
4. Manny Ramirez
5. Greg Maddux
6. Sammy Sosa
7. Frank Thomas
8. Ken Griffey Jr.
9. Pudge Rodriguez
10. Roger Clemens
11. Mike Piazza
12. Derek Jeter - Championships, post-season apps., and SS make him a lock right now.
13. A-Rod
14. The Great Mariano
15. Barry Bonds - Duh.

On the bubble:

1. Chipper Jones - will get consideration because of his position (3B) & perennial playoff team. Needs more big years, tho'
2. John Smoltz
3. Vladimir Guerrero - not enough years yet, but if he stays on this pace ..
4. Nomar Garciaparra - Injuries have derailed this sure-thing the last few years. 2 or 3 bounce back years, and he's a lock.
5. Roberto Alomar - the NY media HATES him after his failed Mets stint. That might've stopped what was a sure trip to Cooperstown.
6. Barry Larkin - he would've been a sure thing in any other era. He still might get in.
7. Todd Helton - numbers are outrageous, but he has the Colorado factor. 1st Rockie in the HOF?
8. Andy Pettite - has an outside shot at 300
9. Jeff Bagwell - numbers are great, but so is everyone else's.
10. Craig Biggio
11. Eric Gagne - needs more dominant years.
12. Tom Glavine
13. Bernie Williams - holds every post-season record in the book. How will the HOF voters judge this?
14. Gary Sheffield - probably needs 100 more HRs to make it. Its possible.
15. Jim Thome - needs a couple more dominant seasons, but I see him in the HOF someday.
16. Albert Pujols - too young, but on his way.
17. Scott Rolen - needs more dominant seasons, and must get the MVP this year.

Stars, but not HOF:

1. Miguel Tejada
2. Curt Schilling
3. Jeff Kent
4. Juan Gonzalez
5. Kevin Brown
6. Mike Mussina
7. Jorge Posada
8. Jason Giambi
9. Hideki Matsui - would've been a HOF'er had he started his career in America. Great player.
10. Edgar Martinez
11. Ichiro - might be the best player in baseball right now, but see: Hideki Matsui
12. Jim Edmonds
13. Larry Walker
14. Carlos Delgado
 
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"but I'll tell you that I'd rather, for one season, have Juan Gonzlez, Manny Ramirez, or Albert Belle at the top of their game than Griffey... and those are just AL guys I can think of that are more or less contemporaries."

You are completely forgetting that those 3 were bums on defense, not even average. Griff at his peak, was the best there was.
 
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Mili: "Give Ichiro 5-6 more years like this year, and he could make it."

By the rules of the baseball HOF, you need a minimum of 10 years service to qualify for induction. Given Ichiro's age, I think its tough to assume that he'll play 10 years in America and/or have the type of seasons over that period to build up HOF numbers.

Tibbs: "You are completely forgetting that those 3 were bums on defense, not even average. Griff at his peak, was the best there was."

You're 100% correct. But, my premise is that Griff never achieved his full potential. He had big seasons in '97 & '98, but never had that signature season.

"griff was the best in the game in all of the 90's.....no question."

Griff wasn't the best. Two words: Barry Bonds.
 
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sears: "I know he's been the heart & soul of the Yankees' run over the last 10 years or so, but his numbers are not HOF-worthy."

He's on pace for 3,000 hits, and he's been the best player on the Yankees Dynasty. Even if his power numbers aren't great, he's been the centerpiece middle-infielder on a lot of winning teams. Don't think that doesn't count for something.

Look at these SS's (and one 2B) in the HOF. The main reason they're in Cooperstown is the same reason why DJ will get in: Pee Wee Reese, Phil Rizzuto, Ozzie Smith, Frank Mazeroski, etc.
 
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