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- Thread starter BigWoof31
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I'm shocked gas stations haven't been turned to credit/debit card only to avoid handling of money.
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The flu that has been around for a hundred years and is everywhere vs something that is months old and just starting to spread?
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Buckeneye
I lead, you follow.
You still can't comprehend mortality rate, can you? It's not physics so I'm not sure how or why this is hard to digest? Even our best numbers right now put this particular affliction as 20x worse than the flu. Again - straight by the numbers. That number may decrease and I pray it does. But if it does not, then that 650k can be very easily topped within a years time.
Is there any part of that you're not processing?
He's an idiot. That much is clear now.
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Yes, the one that’s been around for hundreds of years and still kills 650,000 people per year.
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That’s.....my point. Are you scared of the flu despite limited progress in curtailing for hundreds of years? They will have a vaccine for Covid-19 before we ever enter flu like numbers. Also, the flu kills healthy young people all the time. This thing, not so much. Average age of death is 81 as of yesterday.
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ORD_Buckeye
Wrong glass, Sir.
At the end of the day, nobody knows what course this is going to run. The CDC's worst case scenario projects over 1.5M dead. Yes, that's the worst case scenario, but doesn't that behoove (love that word, and so rarely get to use it in a sentence) us to maybe err on the side of caution for a few weeks or even a couple of months.
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sparcboxbuck
What happened to my ¤cash?
Disclosure: I neither think the situation is as dire as some, nor do I think it’s something that we should be blowing off. I do think that this is a situation that needs to be actively managed.
That said, as with almost any lies, damn lies and statistics example, those raw numbers do not take into account two of the most significant covariates in predicting related mortality. Namely, age and environmental toxins individuals are being exposed to (from pollution to smoking / vaping).
People who are younger and / or have CV systems that are more robust or able to rebound are less likely to be impacted. Among those groups, mortality is similar to a bad flu and less than other outbreaks we’ve seen in our lifetime.
Contrast that with those who are older and live in areas of high pollution or are smoking or worse yet vaping and you see astronomically higher associated mortality.
What is common among those areas where mortality rates are so high? Age, pollution and incidence of smoking / vaping. And another covariate in there is that areas with high pollution are also high population density areas which lead to faster spread of the virus.
Moreover, given the younger / stronger may actually be infected and asymptomatic they may never get tested (and good luck getting tested in the US without paying out of pocket right now) which deflates the denominator in the mortality rate. Given that same group is disproportionately less likely to go tits up, the impact yields what may be an artificially high mortality rate as clearly anyone in the numerator must be included in the denominator.
What this boils down to is the fact that the numbers from other countries may _not_ be a good indication of what is or will happen here. It does, however, mean that in consideration of the differentiation of drivers of mortality, combined with what we know about incubation and methods of how it is spread, regional level management based on best knowledge is in order — perhaps managed at a national level. This could mean anything from what we saw done in China (perhaps the best method for stopping so far) to a more US acceptable (not judging, just saying) method of social distancing to elongate the infection curve is the best chances we have to minimize overall mortality in the states.
Net, net... if you’re young and strong and you don’t smoke and live in areas of high pollution you’ve got a good chance of coming out the other side of this with a (personal) worst case of a really bad cold / flu if you do not take measures to minimize chances of catching and spreading.
If you are older, have any comorbidity / live in areas with high pollution / have made questionable decisions regarding your CV system... you’re best off alone on a desert island waiting it out.
If you’re young and strong and not doing your part to limit contact with those in high risk populations, not washing your hands religiously, exercising good hygiene, etc... you or someone like you could easily carry and infect someone who is far less physically fortunate.
I’ve personally been on two flights this week and all travel for at least a couple weeks is shut down. That said, because I’ve been on flight and a couple of major airports (DFW and ORD) I will be avoiding situations where I could come in contact with anyone who is likely in compromised health or a high risk demographic for at least two weeks. Bottom line, I feel fine and I’m pretty sure I am not carrying the virus... but I’m also going to make sure that until clear of the incubation period I don’t kiss my mom.
Stay healthy everyone.
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