Game Thread Ohio State vs Oklahoma, 09/09/17 @ 7:30 ET (ABC)

[Buckeyebred97]

Who replaces Curtis Samuel as your biggest threat to break the long one?

McCall can break off some long runs and has the ability to make people miss and has some really good vision to find an open lane. IMO I believe he will step into the Curtis Samuel role(thank god we moved on from the Percy Harvin role)

 

[RCSooner1974]

I don't want to scare away our new guest and welcome his input. Nothing disrespectful in his posts at all. But I do agree that if OU wanted to beat us in this series, they probably should have done in last year. UFM won't have this team taking Mark May for granted and they will be ready to play in an early night game in the 'Shoe.

And PS...a Kevin Wilson-ran offense is not going to be an advantage for you compared to a Tim Beck ran offense. Not even close.

Well, considering OU almost always goes up against offenses similar to what Wilson runs in the Big XII, I beg to differ. After Mike Stoops' mishap of trying to stop Patrick Mahomes out in Lubbock, here's how the OU defense fared against top 25 offenses after that game:

Baylor (6th in total offense at 522 yards per game) - 504 yards and 24 points
West Virginia (17th in total offense at 486 yards per game) - 579 yards (most of their yards came after being down 41-13) but only 28 points
Oklahoma State (14th in total offense at 495 yards per game) - 403 yards and 20 points

And Auburn only ranked 43rd (tough to play offense in the SEC) but OU held them to just 339 yards and 19 points.

The switch to the 4-3 should only marginalize our opponents' offensive efficiency against us now that we can go back to the 4-man front to increase pressure on opposing quarterbacks and the linebackers will be less reliant on stopping the pass and can be more focused on covering/containing our opponents' backfields. By Big XII standards, OU's defense is the best. While it may not look like much on paper, keep in mind in the 2014 Sugar Bowl we sacked AJ McCarron seven times and forced Bama into a season-high five turnovers. We also came back from 17 points down to beat Tennessee in Knoxville in double overtime two years ago, thanks in large part to some major defensive adjustments by Mike Stoops.

 

[redguard117]

Well, considering OU almost always goes up against offenses similar to what Wilson runs in the Big XII, I beg to differ.

That is a great point.

Count me as one of those people who will breathe a long sigh of relief after 09/09.

Mayfield is a great QB, OU has a young and very ambitious new coach, and I have a hard time believing our secondary does not suffer in some way from losing 3 first-round picks (at least, at the beginning of the year).

It'll be a tough one.

 

[jwinslow]

Well, considering OU almost always goes up against offenses similar to what Wilson runs in the Big XII, I beg to differ. After Mike Stoops' mishap trying to stop Patrick Mahomes out in Lubbock, here's how the OU defense fared against top 25 offenses after that game:

Baylor (6th in total offense at 522 yards per game) - 504 yards and 24 points
West Virginia (17th in total offense at 486 yards per game) - 579 yards (most of their yards came after being down 41-13) but only 28 points
Oklahoma State (14th in total offense at 495 yards per game) - 403 yards and 20 points

These aren't particularly good numbers though, other than Okie State.

Baylor's final 5 games:
415 / 21 - TCU
522 / 24 - OU
440 / 21 - KSU
634 / 35 - TxT
368 / 21 - KU
I did not include the bowl matchup with the truckers.


WVU's final 5 games:
383 / 24 - Tex
579 / 28 - OU
613 / 49 - ISU
440 / 21 - Bay
229 / 14 - Mia FL

So Oklahoma's effort was the second worst for both teams in their home stretch.

I'm not breaking down Okie light, we already established that was a good performance. That holds up over the season too.

And Auburn only ranked 43rd (tough to play offense in the SEC) but OU held them to just 339 yards and 19 points.

Yes it is, because no one has a quarterback.

The switch to the 4-3 should only marginalize our opponents' offensive efficiency against us now that we can go back to the 4-man front to increase pressure on opposing quarterbacks and the linebackers will be less reliant on stopping the pass and can be more focused on covering/containing our opponents' backfields.

When was the last time Oklahoma ran that consistently?

By Big XII standards, OU's defense is the best.

By B10 standards, QBs like JT Barrett can be the most efficient passers during a lot of recent seasons. Hint: he's not very efficient in real life

While it may not look like much on paper, keep in mind in the 2014 Sugar Bowl we sacked AJ McCarron seven times and forced Bama into a season-high five turnovers. We also came back from 17 points down to beat Tennessee in Knoxville in double overtime two years ago, thanks in large part to some major defensive adjustments by Mike Stoops.

Which is good, because they still racked up 516 yds and 35 pts on you despite all of those turnovers. That game was won primarily by the offense in another installment of why Nick Saban hates the HUNH.
The 2015 defense you're referencing was fairly sound on average in points against and then got thrashed by Clemson (no I don't want to talk about that )

 

[jwinslow]

That is a great point.

Count me as one of those people who will breathe a long sigh of relief after 09/09.

Mayfield is a great QB, OU has a young and very ambitious new coach, and I have a hard time believing our secondary does not suffer in some way from losing 3 first-round picks (at least, at the beginning of the year).

It'll be a tough one.

agreed

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

I guess I don't see how holding Baylor 18 yards under its average and giving up nearly 100 yards more to WVU than they averaged are supporting that OU's defense will be particularly effective against OSU with Wilson calling the plays.

 

[redguard117]

I guess I don't see how holding Baylor 18 yards under its average and giving up nearly 100 yards more to WVU than they averaged are supporting that OU's defense will be particularly effective against OSU with Wilson calling the plays.

Just to play devil's advocate, every team has several 'bad' games each season, and extrapolating from a previous season (especially after a change in coaching staff) isn't a terribly reliable predictor of future performance.

The Oklahoma team that knocked off Alabama a few years ago, or the Michigan State teams that give us fits seemingly every year, or the TCU team that knocked off the JJ Watt-led Badgers, on paper at least had no rights to do so.

But when you get to the very pinnacle of college football (and I would argue that OSU and OU are both right there), and you look at top teams facing other top teams, games tend to come down to a handful of key plays, lucky bounces, or fantastic individual efforts. I think OSU will win, but I also think we need to give OU more credit.


Just my $0.02

 

[jwinslow]

I think OSU will win, but I also think we need to give OU more credit.

I think Corch Myers needs to do that. We can be insufferable jerks

If OSU's incredible secondary play continues and Wilson cures the schematic woes of the past few years, then Oklahoma will have a tough time winning. If it finally catches up with OSU to have so many 2018 eligible DBs missing, or if the offensive woes continue, then OSU will need to hope for a hostile environment to carry them like it almost did against USC 09 & Texas 05.

Spelling this out for our OU visitors:

2018 eligible DBs that were drafted in the first round (in 2016 & 17):

CB Eli Apple
FS Malik Hooker
CB Conley
CB Lattimore

This excludes Vonn Bell and Tyvis Powell, who went pro with 2017 eligibility remaining.


As a result, OSU will turn to Denzel Ward (2 years as the #3 corner but actually lined up primarily outside in nickel and dime packages).

opposite newcomer Kendall Sheffield, Damon Arnette (2 years of regular PT as the #4/5 db), Jeffrey Okudah, Shaun Wade. 3 of those guys were not buckeyes last fall. The best loser of the competition might be the nickelback.

With returning starter Damon Webb joined by a backup that got regular PT in garbage time (Eric Smith or Jordan Fuller, possibly Okudah but I doubt it)

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

Just to play devil's advocate, every team has several 'bad' games each season, and extrapolating from a previous season (especially after a change in coaching staff) isn't a terribly reliable predictor of future performance.

The Oklahoma team that knocked off Alabama a few years ago, or the Michigan State teams that give us fits seemingly every year, or the TCU team that knocked off the JJ Watt-led Badgers, on paper at least had no rights to do so.

But when you get to the very pinnacle of college football (and I would argue that OSU and OU are both right there), and you look at top teams facing other top teams, games tend to come down to a handful of key plays, lucky bounces, or fantastic individual efforts. I think OSU will win, but I also think we need to give OU more credit.


Just my $0.02

Oh, I'm not trying to discredit OU. Just that I didn't see the support offered as being much support at all. I have to confess, I'm not all that sold that Big XII offenses are that stellar ... in my IMO it's more that the Big XII forgot how to play defense. That's just an opinion, true, but I've seen teams from the Big XII run into an actual good defense and they lose. I do think OU probably has the best D in the Big XII, although I think Tommy H will have some pretty good ones in the coming years too (assuming he recruits as I anticipate).. but... in my opinion, having the best D in a conference of shitty Ds isn't much to hang one's hat on.

Hmmm.... now that I read what I just wrote... maybe I AM trying to discredit OU..

 

[RCSooner1974]

Well let's look at Barrett's pass efficiency rating compared to every Big XII quarterback in 2016. Barrett ranked 55th with a 135.3 rating.

Kenny Hill, TCU - 68th, 129.2
Shane Buechele, Texas - 51st, 136.0
Jesse Ertz, Kansas State - 82nd, 121.6
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech - 12th, 157.0
Carter Stanley, Kansas - 100th, 116.3
Jacob Park, ISU - 46th, 138.5
Zach Smith, Baylor - 42nd, 139.3
Skyler Howard, WVU - 28th, 146.6
Mason Rudolph, Okie St. - 10th, 158.9
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma - 1st, 196.4

On average, every Big XII quarterback had a 143.98 rating and ranked 44th. Barrett's pass efficiency rating was below average compared to the average Big XII quarterback in 2016. In Kevin Wilson's offense this year, he would probably be somewhere between the Paul Thompson and Landry Jones level. Meaning he has a pretty good arm and can put up decent numbers, but he may fold under pressure when facing defenses who specialize in zone coverages and blitzes.

 

[BuckeyeNation27]

Well let's look at Barrett's pass efficiency rating compared to every Big XII quarterback in 2016. Barrett ranked 55th with a 135.3 rating.

Kenny Hill, TCU - 68th, 129.2
Shane Buechele, Texas - 51st, 136.0
Jesse Ertz, Kansas State - 82nd, 121.6
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech - 12th, 157.0
Carter Stanley, Kansas - 100th, 116.3
Jacob Park, ISU - 46th, 138.5
Zach Smith, Baylor - 42nd, 139.3
Skyler Howard, WVU - 28th, 146.6
Mason Rudolph, Okie St. - 10th, 158.9
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma - 1st, 196.4

On average, every Big XII quarterback had a 143.98 rating and ranked 44th. Barrett's pass efficiency rating was below average compared to the average Big XII quarterback in 2016. In Kevin Wilson's offense this year, he would probably be somewhere between the Paul Thompson and Landry Jones level. Meaning he has a pretty good arm and can put up decent numbers, but he may fold under pressure when facing defenses who specialize in zone coverages and blitzes.

I see you accounted for the Tim Beck factor. Now account for the Big12 "defense" factor.

 

[RCSooner1974]

I see you accounted for the Tim Beck factor. Now account for the Big12 "defense" factor.

Okay, but why did Tom Herman hire away Tim Beck from your staff? He was not fired from OSU, no?

 

[Wingate1217]

Well let's look at Barrett's pass efficiency rating compared to every Big XII quarterback in 2016. Barrett ranked 55th with a 135.3 rating.

Kenny Hill, TCU - 68th, 129.2
Shane Buechele, Texas - 51st, 136.0
Jesse Ertz, Kansas State - 82nd, 121.6
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech - 12th, 157.0
Carter Stanley, Kansas - 100th, 116.3
Jacob Park, ISU - 46th, 138.5
Zach Smith, Baylor - 42nd, 139.3
Skyler Howard, WVU - 28th, 146.6
Mason Rudolph, Okie St. - 10th, 158.9
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma - 1st, 196.4

On average, every Big XII quarterback had a 143.98 rating and ranked 44th. Barrett's pass efficiency rating was below average compared to the average Big XII quarterback in 2016. In Kevin Wilson's offense this year, he would probably be somewhere between the Paul Thompson and Landry Jones level. Meaning he has a pretty good arm and can put up decent numbers, but he may fold under pressure when facing defenses who specialize in zone coverages and blitzes.

Actually his efficiency goes way up when he blitzed. I read that somewhere but I am getting on a plane so don't have time to find it. I think and I don'tknow this as fact but JTs efficiency dropped significantly after Herman left and he received coaching from Tim Beck and piss poor OC play calling the last two years.

 

[ochre]

Well let's look at Barrett's pass efficiency rating compared to every Big XII quarterback in 2016. Barrett ranked 55th with a 135.3 rating.

Kenny Hill, TCU - 68th, 129.2
Shane Buechele, Texas - 51st, 136.0
Jesse Ertz, Kansas State - 82nd, 121.6
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech - 12th, 157.0
Carter Stanley, Kansas - 100th, 116.3
Jacob Park, ISU - 46th, 138.5
Zach Smith, Baylor - 42nd, 139.3
Skyler Howard, WVU - 28th, 146.6
Mason Rudolph, Okie St. - 10th, 158.9
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma - 1st, 196.4

On average, every Big XII quarterback had a 143.98 rating and ranked 44th. Barrett's pass efficiency rating was below average compared to the average Big XII quarterback in 2016. In Kevin Wilson's offense this year, he would probably be somewhere between the Paul Thompson and Landry Jones level. Meaning he has a pretty good arm and can put up decent numbers, but he may fold under pressure when facing defenses who specialize in zone coverages and blitzes.

You do realize that as a RS Freshman, prior to the Beck experiment, Barrett put up a 169.8 rating?

 

[RCSooner1974]

Actually his efficiency goes way up when he blitzed. I read that somewhere but I am getting on a plane so don't have time to find it. I think and I don'tknow this as fact but JTs efficiency dropped significantly after Herman left and he received coaching from Tim Beck and piss poor OC play calling the last two years.

Well, Herman was an offensive genius then. You beat Wisconsin, then Bama, and then Oregon for the NC title with Cardale Jones at quarterback.