Operation Chaos mode - BCS Title game contenders

[Poe McKnoe]

Indeed


Oh look -- the SEC-CG winner vs. Texas. Who could've seen that coming?

Well at least they didn't stick a couple undefeated mid-major programs against eachother in a BCS bowl. Now THAT would have been pointless. They'd have to give Texas/Alabama the National Championship Trop(h)y and give the winner of that game a 'Mid Major National Championship'. :(

 

[JXC]

I really don't think so. Our SOS was pretty bad and the computers hated us this year. Our computer average was .5100 which put us at 12th. The computers haven't liked us all year. I'm 100% sure we would not have been ahead of Texas in the computers. Just as I was 100% sure Saturday night that Cincinnati was the team that missed out when Nebraska lost. Please don't be delusional and think Ohio State would have gotten this BCS Title game over Texas. Take of the scarlet colored glasses and see the picture. Texas/Oklahoma champ vs. Alabama/Florida champ is who the media and the BCS wanted when the season started, and they weren't going to let any other team get in their way of this happening. But it's a moot point.

 

[BB73]

I just want to point out that although Cincy finished third in the final BCS standings, slightly ahead of TCU, Cincy probably would NOT have finished second in the final BCS standings if Texas had lost. TCU would have benefited more from a Texas loss in the computers than Cincy would have.

Final BCS Rankings, expanded to show each computer ranking:

.........And &...Billin..Colley..........Sagarin.........Computer...Harris..Coachs..Overall
Team.....Hester..sgley...Matrix..Massey..ELO.Chs..Wolfe..BCS Score..Score...Score...Score
Alabama...25.......25......25......25......25......25.....1.000....0.9968...9966....998
Texas.....23.......24......24......22......21......23.....0.920....0.9547...9553....943
Cincy.....24.......22......23......23......23......24.....0.930....0.8656...8678....888
TCU.......21.......21......21......21......22......21.....0.840....0.9049...9058....884
Florida...22.......23......22......24......24......22.....0.910....0.8404...8407....864
Boise St..20.......20......19......19......19......20.....0.780....0.8274...8244....811
.

Estimated BCS Rankings if Texas had lost, expanded to show each computer ranking (% of 100 after hi-and-lo are excluded):

.........And &...Billin..Colley..........Sagarin.........Computer...
Team.....Hester..sgley...Matrix..Massey..ELO.Chs..Wolfe..BCS Score
Alabama...25.......25......25......25......25......25.....1.000
Cincy.....24.......23......24......24......23......24.....0.950
TCU.......22.......22......22......22......22......22.....0.880
Florida...23.......24......23......24......24......23.....0.910

So instead of Cincy gaining .090 delta on TCU's ranking in the 1/3 of the score from the computers (or .030), Cincy would have gained .0233 (1/3 of a .070 Delta), which would not have offset their trailing by .0773 in the Human polls (.0380 plus .0393).

This assumes that almost every computer would have dropped Texas below TCU, and that there weren't many human voters that had a sequence of TCU-Texas-Cincy, in which case a Texas loss would have benefited Cincy. It also doesn't try to account for the voters trying to game the system if Texas had lost, by voting a TCU-Florida-Cincy sequence, for example, in order to help TCU in the BCS standings.

 

[BigJim]

I really don't think so. Our SOS was pretty bad and the computers hated us this year. Our computer average was .5100 which put us at 12th. The computers haven't liked us all year. I'm 100% sure we would not have been ahead of Texas in the computers. Just as I was 100% sure Saturday night that Cincinnati was the team that missed out when Nebraska lost. Please don't be delusional and think Ohio State would have gotten this BCS Title game over Texas. Take of the scarlet colored glasses and see the picture. Texas/Oklahoma champ vs. Alabama/Florida champ is who the media and the BCS wanted when the season started, and they weren't going to let any other team get in their way of this happening. But it's a moot point.

You're kidding right... The computers haven't liked us because we lost to Purdue. The computers like Cincy better than Texas. 5 of the 6 computers that go into the BCS have a strength of schedule rating. 4 of those 5 think OSU had a tougher schedule than Cincy with an average of 59th to 50th!! Unless you have something to back up your claims, your credibility is totally shot when you throw out things like "100% sure" when the data says otherwise.

 

[NateG]

plus we are 12 with 2 losses. And the fact that the 2 losses came to teams outside of BCS recognition really hurt. Undefeated teams get so much more love in the comps for good reason. Then when your loss isn't to a BCS top 15 you get dinged pretty bad. I usually like your arguments but this one is way off base. The way that OSU finished on top of the way Texas finished could have split the human voters even more too and put pressure on them not to put OSU in. I believe without much doubt that if there was a better conference than MWC or Big East with an undefeated team that they would have jumped Texas. Texas played almost no one that ended in the BCS hunt besides Nebraska and they "sqeaked" that one out. 2 top 15 BCS wins would have put OSU in the mix and add in USC/Wisky in the top 25 and SOS is strong. That isn't OSU glasses, that is a fact of any team in a BCS conference. Name another team that is undefeated that can boast that....Alabama who won 3. And they are in convincingly. OSU 4 top 25 wins Alabama 3, Texas 2 and they arent in top 18 of BCS. Don't kid yourself OSU would have been up there, maybe they do get voted out (which has never been proven), but they would be up there.

 

[JXC]

Cincinnati has 3 top 25 wins.

What you guys are assuming is that the system is fair. It's not. Would a undefeated Ohio State look/be better than Texas? Yes! But the system is such BS that it would have put Texas in. The system sucks...but if you guys want to defend it go ahead. SOS doesn't change whether you win or lose your games. Our SOS was lower than Texas. If we win all our games, it probably goes down more...because USC would have even one more loss.

It's a stupid argument. I'm just trying to prove a point. If you guys like the system and don't think it could have screwed us this year, then fine. I think it could have and would have. And I think it very well could next year, which sucks. The system sucks. Cincinnati shouldn't lost a chance to play for the NCG just because Nebraska kicks a ball out of bounds. It makes no sense.

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

Cincinnati has 3 top 25 wins.

So does Ohio State.

 

[NateG]

So does Ohio State.

4 if we had beat USC and 2 top 13.

 

[billmac91]

There's really no way Ohio State goes over Texas though. Voters would not have let that happen. All of a sudden random voters are putting Texas #1 to help their average while OSU stays at 3. Ohio State maybe gets some midwestern love, but that's it. 3/4th's of the country would have strongly voted Alabama vs. Texas. I don't think that is off base in the slightest...

 

[NateG]

because USC would have even one more loss.

That is assuming that USC isn't really fired up and beats Washington which put them in the Pac 10 hunt. When they played Stanford and Arizona they never cared about winning after losing to Oregon.

 

[NateG]

Voters would not have let that happen.

No true proof or basis of this trend ever occuring. Plus if OSU beats USC they could have been a close 3 at that point and to be honest, Texas didn't really blow the doors off any top teams at the end of the year to back your voter stance. Alot of people think Texas got a lucky call, not that they deserved the win. (I think it was the right call) That is why TCU and Cincy were even talked about by guys like Herbie and Brad Edwards(bcs guru).

 

[BigJim]

There's really no way Ohio State goes over Texas though. Voters would not have let that happen. All of a sudden random voters are putting Texas #1 to help their average while OSU stays at 3. Ohio State maybe gets some midwestern love, but that's it. 3/4th's of the country would have strongly voted Alabama vs. Texas. I don't think that is off base in the slightest...

The whole argument here that OSU MAY have been in it agrees that most of the country would have voted Alabama vs. Texas. I disagree completely that the voters would jump off of the SEC and onto Texas just to avoid putting OSU in the NCG. No way in hell do I see that happening. As much as that may have happened the midwestern love you mentioned would have offset it.

 

[BigJim]

Cincinnati has 3 top 25 wins.

What you guys are assuming is that the system is fair. It's not. Would a undefeated Ohio State look/be better than Texas? Yes! But the system is such BS that it would have put Texas in. The system sucks...but if you guys want to defend it go ahead. SOS doesn't change whether you win or lose your games. Our SOS was lower than Texas. If we win all our games, it probably goes down more...because USC would have even one more loss.

It's a stupid argument. I'm just trying to prove a point. If you guys like the system and don't think it could have screwed us this year, then fine. I think it could have and would have. And I think it very well could next year, which sucks. The system sucks. Cincinnati shouldn't lost a chance to play for the NCG just because Nebraska kicks a ball out of bounds. It makes no sense.

Don't spin this into me defending the system. I never once came close to defending the system.

The only disagreement here is that you claim there is 0% chance the system could have put OSU in. I'm literally 100% sure that you were wrong in saying there's a 0% chance OSU would have made it unless you can explain to me why the computers would have OSU behind Cincy. Sure it may have happened, but seriously, how can you feel 100% that it would have?

 

[Buckeyeskickbuttocks]

Don't spin this into me defending the system. I never once came close to defending the system.

The only disagreement here is that you claim there is 0% chance the system could have put OSU in. I'm literally 100% sure that you were wrong in saying there's a 0% chance OSU would have made it unless you can explain to me why the computers would have OSU behind Cincy. Sure it may have happened, but seriously, how can you feel 100% that it would have?

His beliefs are fact.

 

[FCollinsBuckeye]

The only disagreement here is that you claim there is 0% chance the system could have put OSU in. I'm literally 100% sure that you were wrong in saying there's a 0% chance OSU would have made it unless you can explain to me why the computers would have OSU behind Cincy. Sure it may have happened, but seriously, how can you feel 100% that it would have?

:crazy:

50.1%, imo.

:pirate1: