Oversigning (capacity 25, everyone welcome! maybe)

[chance]

This is the rankest of speculation, and I have no idea if the numbers this year were an anomaly or not, but that is one stat that I would love to see over time, as it might provide a partial explanation for the extra LOIs signed. Or not, of course.

The problem with this is it really doesn't answer anything it is basically a which came first the chicken or the egg. It fits both views you say this increases the the number of LOIs to replace these guys and someone else would just say that over signing gives a school the ability to find that NFL caliber player by tossing the duds.

 

[Gatorubet]

The problem with this is it really doesn't answer anything it is basically a which came first the chicken or the egg. It fits both views you say this increases the the number of LOIs to replace these guys and someone else would just say that over signing gives a school the ability to find that NFL caliber player by tossing the duds.

Yep. Do they have more good guys due to oversigning, and therefor more leave, or have more leave, so have to oversign?

Never said it was an answer, just posted it in response to the post today about early departures. I was not expecting a 2 to 1 ratio of early SEC guys when compared to the Big-10, as we both pump out about similar numbers of pro players.

 

[jwinslow]

I was not expecting a 2 to 1 ratio of early SEC guys when compared to the Big-10, as we both pump out about similar numbers of pro players.

But I would estimate a 30-40% of the first day picks (which is generally the goal for early departures) come from the schools producing zero early departures.

 

[jwinslow]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/football/ncaa/01/06/early-entries/index.html

2010 was 14 SEC vs 7 B10 according to Gator (someone let me know if that's wrong)

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/football/ncaa/01/06/early-entries/index.html

2009 was 13 SEC vs 6 B10, but the same held true last year, OSU had a rare lack of early departures (only Gibson) & Michigan was taking a half-decade sabbatical from developing talent. The only one who left, a former 5-star CB, went undrafted.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/11233741

2008 was 14 SEC vs 10 B10, which sounds about right, and that was because OSU had 3, though Michigan didn't chip in at all (zero early departures)

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/10563731

2007 was 7 SEC vs 10 B10, since Michigan decided to be a factor for once.

 

[jwinslow]

I am working on categorizing the various recruiting classes to break down who signed, left, when and why, with some help from our other fanbases here.

one part of the table records whether they left early and why, grades, nfl, behavior, pt, etc.

gator and others, what should I do with the redshirt juniors who do not return for a fifth year? Those guys got their four year scholarship and many did so with degrees. Should I count those in with the benchwarmer who stays for all five years?

 

[Diego-Bucks]

The list of underclassmen kids declaring for the draft this year has twice as many SEC players than Big-10 Players. I do not know if this is a pattern or not, or if the numbers hold true over time, but if they do, then 4 X 14 = 56, versus 4 X 7 = 28. The SEC would have an extra 28 slots to fill over four years. Granted, Vandy or Mississippi would not be the ones getting the lion's share of the hits. But over four years that would be an extra 28 slots opened up for SEC programs.

This is the rankest of speculation, and I have no idea if the numbers this year were an anomaly or not, but that is one stat that I would love to see over time, as it might provide a partial explanation for the extra LOIs signed. Or not, of course.

You make a valid point. I looked at the 2010 and 2009 Early Entrees and the SEC declared at close to a 2:1 ratio compared with the Big Ten. This can account for some portion in the discrepancies of numbers. While the additional need for scholarships appears to be close to 1 extra slot needed per team, an issue develops when looking at causation.

The early entry departures can create a need for teams to sign more players to LOIs, though often (and I would argue it'd be a responsible thing to do) the recruiting "budget" is established by a team taking that into account. On the other hand, a junior who is borderline draftable may declare early because the team used the method of "oversign" to increase competition that would make that junior's return to the college team more of a detriment than a benefit.

Though I don't know the specifics, a player like Glen Coffey may have opted for the NFL because of Alabama's quasi-known oversign haul that brought in Mark Ingram. Coffey may have felt he might have lost his starting RB position to Ingram anyways thus causing him to leave for the NFL before he was ready.

In this case, oversigning would be a positive feedback loop to the recruiting system wherein it both causes more oversigning in the future and is the result of the method's own effects in prior years.

 

[AKAK]

I am working on categorizing the various recruiting classes to break down who signed, left, when and why, with some help from our other fanbases here.

one part of the table records whether they left early and why, grades, nfl, behavior, pt, etc.

gator and others, what should I do with the redshirt juniors who do not return for a fifth year? Those guys got their four year scholarship and many did so with degrees. Should I count those in with the benchwarmer who stays for all five years?

Josh... not that I've been contributing...

But, I'd think of it in a "good result/bad result" kind of way...

4 year scholarship with degree is good.... I'd put those in the 5 year bench warmer category... (but the 5 year guy is out of eligibility, so, at least "kind of good"-- you did all you could for them)

4 years without a degree is just a 4 year bench warmer to me.... they might have just been the last one to escape the year before.

 

[MililaniBuckeye]

I will leave you with this one stat: The SEC has had as many schools (four) win national championships in the past five years (Florida, LSU, Alabama and Auburn) as the Big Ten has in the 74-year history of the AP poll (Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota and Ohio State).

Aside from Alabama, none of those other three SEC schools (Florida, LSU, and Auburn) have more than three NCs (Florida 3, LSU 3, Auburn 2). Three of the four Big Ten schools you mentioned (Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State) have at least six (Michigan 11, Minnesota 6, and Ohio State 7).

 

[Gatorubet]

Aside from Alabama, none of those other three SEC schools (Florida, LSU, and Auburn) have more than three NCs (Florida 3, LSU 3, Auburn 2). Three of the four Big Ten schools you mentioned (Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State) have at least six (Michigan 11, Minnesota 6, and Ohio State 7).

We have girls wearing practically nothing outside most of the year.

 

[3074326]

We have girls wearing practically nothing outside most of the year.

So does OSU. :p

 

[WolverineMike]

Ole Miss just had a recruiting weekend with like 30 kids in attendance. How do these schools do it?

 

[sandgk]

Ole Miss just had a recruiting weekend with like 30 kids in attendance. How do these schools do it?

I'm guessing they pick up the phone ...

Seriously, in Ole Miss' case over half of those thirty slated for 1/18-24 week were already verbal commits.

Some of the rest probably did not count beyond 25, or can't, or wouldn't.

 

[heisman]

Ole Miss just had a recruiting weekend with like 30 kids in attendance. How do these schools do it?

They probably consult tsun and just do the opposite. :)

 

[WolverineMike]

 

[jlb1705]

I'm guessing they pick up the phone ...

Seriously, in Ole Miss' case over half of those thirty slated for 1/18-24 week were already verbal commits.

Some of the rest probably did not count beyond 25, or can't, or wouldn't.

They're just doing it for the free vacation in Oxford, MS.