I maybe in the optimistic minority here, but I don't see us as being that far from competeing...I understand that we need some different pieces, a new attitude all together and some luck, but here is what I see...
Let me first start by looking at each area of the team, with the guys at the big club and in the minors...
At the major league level I think we have had a decent 1-4 starting rotation...Harang is a cy young candiadte IMO, Arroyo has thrown great, just without run support...Lohse has his troubles at times and if we could deal him for something I am for it...Belisle is a young arm and I think he has good stuff to be a productive starter behind the two above and Bailey on down the road.
I see about 8-9 arms that with in the next 1-3/4 years that could be semi succesful to very successful in the majors...These guys would be Livingston, Dumatrait, Bailey, Fisher, Thompson, Cueto, Watson, Webb and then there are a couple of other guys...
Overall Bailey has the makings of a number 1 and we already have a good #1 and #2 so that would give us a great top 3 and with the guys above and with Belisle we have the makings for a very good rotation with the ability to keep their combined era under 4. We can win a lot of games if they can do that...Also if we ever make it to the playoffs Starting pitching is the best way to win and with a top 3 that we will have should lead us to maybe beat some teams that have a better overall team than us.
Now lets take a look at the pen...
This has been a huge problem...We have some decent arms, but we don't have that guy that shortens the game, or better yet 2 guys like some teams are able to have...
The thing is we have the only guys that we could afford being a small market...Weathers is a decent bullpen guy, but he is a 7th inning guy, not a 9th or 8th...Coffey has really struggled I think b/c they send him out there too much, and he is still young and still needs work...Stanton has pitched decent lately, he has some decent stuff to be a lefty specialist, but I just don't see it being here, with coutlangus being a cheap guy and being young and showing some ability and also Bray when he gets back from injury and he is very young as well...We also have Guardado who could be the closer for a couple years and help us or if the value is there we could send him somewhere for some prospects to a contender...
We also have Burton, Salmon, McBeth, with the first 2 being power guys, and McBeth having a nice fastball and great offspeed stuff...We also have Majew who has some good stuff and he ever returns to form that he was before the trade we have another solid arm...
In the minors we have basically taken all the guys from AAA, we have Medlock, Roenicke, Pelland, Mateo and a couple other guys that have been showing some solid stuff in the minors...You could also have some of the starters mentioned above move to the pen, especially with the depth of the starters we have...We could also trade some of these arms.
So from the lefthand side I think that Bray and Coutlangus can get the job done and they are very young and cheap and will be around for awihle...Some power guys with Burton, Coffey, and Salmon, then some middle power with good offspeed stuff in Majew, McBeth...If we could get any of these guys to develop into a stopper in the back, and another guy to set up with the two lefty specialists we should be setting good with a pen...We might also keep Weathers just for some vet leadership and teaching to the young guys...So the potential is there, just got to get guys back from injury...
Catcher - I think this is really a position that is killing us...Ross had a good half year last year, but has really fallen off, he has some pop, but just looks lost up there...Moeller is not the answer and neither is Javy...Javy is a solid pinch hitter, but that is it...But the first 2 guys have good Defense, and as long as you are getting defense out of your catcher it is hard to complain, but it is always nice to have an offensive catcher...Also in the minors we have no one...
1B - Hatte and Conine have been a solid RL combo, but they are up there in years and just guys holding down the spot till Votto is ready, either by the end of this year or at the beginning of next year...He struggled early in the season, but he is hitting close to .400 for the month of may and many say it was just bad luck that hurt his number in April and now those line drives he was hitting are falling in for hits...We really don't have much else behind Votto at the time, but Votto should be a cog for at least 3-4 years b4 he would become expensive, and hopefully we will have some depth in the minors by that time...Votto is very good, and I am looking forward to his arrival to the big club...
2B - We have Phillips at the majors and he was a really good pickup by WK...The only problem with him is that Narron trys to fit him into spots in the lineup, being our only guy that can hit from the right side, that he shouldn't being hitting in...Like cleanup 2 hole or even the 3 hold at times...Phillips would be a very good 6 hold hitter for this team...He has broken out of his early season hitting streak and has hit in 19 straight games now and is looking good...
As for the minors we have some solid prospects that could figure into the equation at 2b in the future...Those being Valaikia who is a great hitter, plays SS, but will probably be a 2b...He sohuld be ready by the time that Phillips is too pricey...Also we have Turner in Dayton as well that is a very solid prospect...
SS - I am not really a fan of Gonzo, I like some of the plays that he makes, but he has made more errors than a defensive SS should make...Also his bat has come back down to earth...I don't think that he is holding the team back, and hopefully his D will come around, and we really don't have much in terms of SS in the minors besides Janish, but he also struggles soem with the bat...
3B - EE is a stud...I still don't know why he isnt up here...he is hitting .390 in his trip to Louisville, whatever Narron's problem with ihm is he needs to get over it...EE was just starting to get hot with the bat when he got sent down and our lineup would of been really strong with him in there with the DH rule this weekend, but he was busy beating the shit out of the ball in Louisville...He has about 3 doubles off the wall and 2 homers in his short stint down there...THe only problem is his D, but he continues to work on it, and he has some nice range and makes some good plays, he just needs work on his throwing...
We have a kid blowing up in Dayton, that is only 19 in Francisco, he has bad plate discipline, but he his a solid prospect with solid power and solid defense, but he is only 19 and should develop nicely...
As for the outfield, we are pretty stacked...We have Dunn, Griffey, and Hamilton out there for everyday guys...Then we have Freel and Hopper who are very good backups...In the minors we have some decent guys for backup role players like Dickerson, but the main guy is Jay Bruce...This kid has stud written all over him, some even say that he has passed Bailey as the overall number 1 guy in the system...He is a great hitter and is doing things at 20 that not many other 20 year olds have done at his age...He should be up here by middle of next season, and he allows us to trade Dunn or Griffey and get some prospects in return...We also have Stubbs who was our #1 pick last year and he has been solid in Dayton this year, and looks to be progressing pretty well...
So overall I think other than Catcher, SS, and the pen we have the makings of a solid organization, but some of our depth is still in the young stages of their career either in the A ball and a year or two away from gettig here, or they are just starting major league carrers and are going to take their lumps...If we can develop these guys the rest of this season and on, we are set up to contend IMO...No reason for a big fire sale...I would dump the vetrans, like Conine, Hatte, Gonzalez, Dunn, Griff, Weather, Santos, Stanton if we could get some people in return or the guys behind them are ready to go...But I don't think we are that far away from competeing, and if we can continue to draft like we did last year we are going to be solid for years to come...I also think we have started to turn around a little this season, but the baseball gods just havent been on our side just yet...
I still think the biggest problem overall is attitude on this team and we need a new manager, that can manage some young talent and knows how to manage a team and fill out a lineup card and use the bullpen...