BCS predictions/discussion/Knock Em' Off

[osucollegebuck]

I love you guys on 1460 The Fan really I do but come on. I think tOSU vs. USC in the Rose Bowl would be great. But be fair how could you realistically think that could be better for Ohio State. I'm sure if you polled the actual players to a man they would rather have the National Championship game. If its just a matter of credibility we do play USC the next 2 years. I agree with Eddie George on the dream matchup being tOSU vs. Georgia, not going to happen but that would be the most ideal.

 

[Gatorubet]

I love how the media "experts" are still all over LSU, USC, and UF despite 7 losses between the three of them. It's like the season's results don't matter. They picked those 3 teams at the begining of the year and damn it those will be the three best team at the end of it.

And Miami is just starting to play its best ball!!

 

[MD Buckeye]

And Miami is just starting to play its best ball!!

LSU, USC, Florida & Miami in a 4 team tourny to determine the REAL National Champion

 

[ChrisStassen]

Chris Stassen had updates the probablilities for tOSU reaching the title game, and it now stands at 60%.

The O-Zone asked me to redo the calculations with the Vegas line.

Prior to this week, in order to complete the calculation, I had to come up with pointspreads for theoretical games that might not even happen, e.g., Kansas vs Oklahoma in the Big XII title game. There's no Vegas line for such a hypothetical game, so I had to lean on some other system (I chose Sagarin's predictor ratings) to create pointspreads.

This week, we're down to two games that matter and they both have Vegas lines. Since the research paper that I used to transform lines into odds was based on Vegas lines, this is probably a more accurate calculation than the ones I did previously.

Sticking with Sagarin-predictor gives OSU 71% to New Orleans, because Sagarin has Oklahoma -7 instead of Vegas' Oklahoma -3, making Missouri 31% to win (instead of Vegas' 41%).

 

[Jaxbuck]

Well all I know is if I'm playing poker and have anywhere between 57-71% chance to draw to the nuts I'm going all in.

 

[buckeyegrad]

LSU, USC, Florida & Miami in a 4 team tourny to determine the REAL National Champion

What, no ND? First time in something like 15 years that they end their season on a two-game win streak and you want to exclude them. What are you thinking?? They are HOT, HOT, HOT!!

 

[Steve19]

Thank god for those "unbiased" computers with their sophisticated Bayesian logic programs. Clearly, Kansas is a much better team. I don't even know why anyone would think otherwise.

GO BUCKS!!!!

Actually, Waller, if you want to look at the sophisticated Bayesian logic, then look at the Sagarin predictor column, not the ELO. ELO doesn't allow Sagarin to include all the variables he would like to include. Hence, the model is less predictive than he would like. Sagarin predictor has Kansas as #6.

 

[Steve19]

What, no ND? First time in something like 15 years that they end their season on a two-game win streak and you want to exclude them. What are you thinking?? They are HOT, HOT, HOT!!

I agree. I am sick to death of the obvious bias against Ntre Ame in the polls. OK, I agree that they should not play for the NC, but they have a TV contract. Isn't that and two wins enough for a BCS bowl? Breaks my heart to think of that nice Charlie Weis fellow home for Christmas. You tell me, do you want to be the one to tell the people who find turkeys out of stock in his neighborhood supermarket? It's just not fair.

 

[buckeyemania11]

I love how the media "experts" are still all over LSU, USC, and UF despite 7 losses between the three of them. It's like the season's results don't matter. They picked those 3 teams at the begining of the year and damn it those will be the three best team at the end of it.

yep, USC Or A SEC Team Will Not Be In The Title Game This Year.

So This Season Does Not Matter

 

[BuckeyesFever]

It's better to have ppl dismiss us and say we play nobody for the NC game if we win than to lose at USC's home base. 5 years or more, young ppl will look at our record with 8 National Championship is many times better than being dismissed for a short time. Though, some ppl won't dismiss us, because WVA is really good. Remmy, it beat UGA at a bowl last year even w/o Slaton and White. I don't know if Mizzou is really that good or not. We may have better chance beating WVA or Mizzou than USC. I'm sick they too often play at their home base for BCS.
:osu2:

 

[BengalsAndBucks]

It's better to have ppl dismiss us and say we play nobody for the NC game if we win than to lose at USC's home base. 5 years or more, young ppl will look at our record with 8 National Championship is many times better than being dismissed for a short time. Though, some ppl won't dismiss us, because WVA is really good. Remmy, it beat UGA at a bowl last year even w/o Slaton and White. I don't know if Mizzou is really that good or not. We may have better chance beating WVA or Mizzou than USC. I'm sick they too often play at their home base for BCS.
:osu2:

WVU actually beat Georgia Tech in the Gator Bowl last year, not quite as impressive a win as UGA.


Personally, I think it would be great if we were to win the national championship and still get trashed by the media. Can you think of any better way to keep the national champions (who could be returning as many as 19 starters, although it will probably be closer to 16) hungry? I can't imagine the chip on the shoulders of the players if they were to hear for 6 months how they werent the best team in college football despite winning the national championship.

 

[Lockup]

It's better to have ppl dismiss us and say we play nobody for the NC game if we win than to lose at USC's home base. 5 years or more, young ppl will look at our record with 8 National Championship is many times better than being dismissed for a short time. Though, some ppl won't dismiss us, because WVA is really good. Remmy, it beat UGA at a bowl last year even w/o Slaton and White. I don't know if Mizzou is really that good or not. We may have better chance beating WVA or Mizzou than USC. I'm sick they too often play at their home base for BCS.
:osu2:

WVU is a really good team until OSU beats them. Then they are an overratted team that had no business in the NCG. now if OSU played in the SEC well that would be a different story then. If we beat WVU then we would be world beaters.

 

[jlb1705]

You guys are missing the boat on the whole Herbstreit/Rose Bowl thing. It's as simple as this: ESPN/ABC has broadcast rights to the Rose Bowl. Fox has rights to the rest of the BCS. ESPN doesn't give a hoot what the ratings are for the BCS Championship game, while an Ohio State-Southern Cal matchup in the Rose Bowl would likely be a ratings goldmine for ESPN & ABC.

I'm not upset with Herbstreit for his comments because I think they're anti-OSU. I'm upset because I think he's built his career and his credibility on being the most solid, even-keeled analyst out there. The whole puppet thing is getting in the way of that though, and it's getting worse. For me, it's harming his credibility. I think there is a balanced to be striked between the two, and right now that's not happening.

 

[GrizzlyBuck]

I think that tOSU is in a no win situation no matter how it plays out. Barring something completely unforseen and probably impossible, like Mizz and WVU losing and somehow UGA or LSU sliding into the BCS champ game, we can't win.

Go to the Rose Bowl and play USC with a home field advantage; win and we'll hear "yeah but USC was overrated, they lost to Stanford (who lost to ND) for gods sake" Lose and we were overated again.

Go to the BCS champ game and it will be the same thing, win, "well your opponent sucked (i.e. wasn't from the SEC)" Lose and "you suck so bad, you could not even back into a National Title against a non-SEC patsy"

The only way to get any national respect is to keep sending players to the NFL (and hyping it like USC does and Miami did) Or beat an SEC team in a meaningful bowl.

I just hope we get the chance to bring home the Crystal, fill the WHAC up with a few more of those and the national pukes (pundits) can just cry in their beer.

 

[buckeyegrad]

I think that tOSU is in a no win situation no matter how it plays out.....

Go to the Rose Bowl and play USC with a home field advantage; win and we'll hear "yeah but USC was overrated.....

Go to the BCS champ game and it will be the same thing, win, "well your opponent sucked.....

It seems like we win in both of these situations to me. I am a very happy Buckeye if either of these two scenarios play out....especially the second one.

The only thing that would cause these not to be wins for the Buckeye nation is if you give a rat's ass what the media says once the bowl season begins (i.e. the media no longer has an influence on who and where you play) or you care what some slack-jawed SEC fanboy says.